As a buyer, what are my odds of receiving a trouble-free Emira?

[eriegz]

I think I speak for many of us here when I say that the past couple of months on this forum have been a difficult time, as we've watched a number of (in many cases, longtime) Emira owners get fed up with & sell their vehicles. Many of us — especially those of us in Canada & the US, already holding on for dear life after multiple delays and broken promises from Lotus — are left clinging to any shred of hope that we can find. It's one thing to wait 28 months (but who's counting?) for your vehicle to arrive; it's another thing entirely to wait 28 months for your vehicle to arrive, AND THEN have it die just because you gave it a car wash (link).

Add to all of this Lotus' own apparent inability to fix the cars that DO have faults in a timely and predictable manner, and you have an anxiety-inducing recipe for disaster.

Yes, yes, I know, owners with "problem cars" are more likely to log in to this forum to complain about them, so the problem might look worse than it actually is. And in fairness, there's also been a good number of forum members chiming in to say that their cars have been PERFECT; that they're as dependable as the sunrise; to not lose hope, that the car will be 100% worth the wait; etc., and I believe them. And I know that even companies like Porsche & McLaren have their fair share of customer horror stories too (example 1, example 2), so this isn't a problem that's exclusive to Lotus by any means.

But I want to take this conversation past the point of just anecdotes and try to get some kind of hard data on what buyers can expect from an Emira purchase. I know that nobody on this forum has a crystal ball (except apparently @Lotus64), but I'm curious to know — best-guess — if we grouped all Emira purchases into 1 of 2 buckets:

• Bucket A: zero issues, or, a couple of issues that are fixed within a week or two and then smooth sailing from there on
• Bucket B: the "get stranded while on road trip" / "vehicle's been at dealer for the past 3 months" / "can't let car sit in garage for more than 2 days in a row without needing to disconnect the battery to reboot the computer so that it will start up again" bucket

Obviously everybody hopes that their car will fall into "bucket A". But what are the percentage odds of it landing in "bucket A"? Is it 50%? 30%? 70%? And how does this number compare to other brands?

The only data point that I can think of is this poll started by @Lolub which, if I recall correctly, started out much more skewed towards the "no issues" bucket, but now has sadly moved more towards the "has issues" side:

So if we use just this one survey, then it looks like the percent chance of landing in "bucket A" is (41.3 + 4.8 + 7.9) = 54%.

Anyone else want to try their hand at coming up with a better number? You can show your work / explain how you come up with your answer, but at the end of it I'm looking for a number, not a story.

 

[Nick in Sydney]

I don't think a historical survey is going to answer your question, because Lotus has been addressing "initial niggles" with each software update and is in frequent dialogue with its suppliers. Who cares if someone had a problem six months ago? What matters is whether you will have a problem.

We're now roughly at the one-year mark since the production of customer cars started and I'm pretty confident the cars coming off the line have fewer issues than those built 12 months ago. They'll be even better a year from now.

I was at the factory this morning and they were targeting 40 cars today. They've actually slowed the line speed back down again to reduce pressure on production staff and ensure quality, but have added a night shift so capacity remains at the target level of ~5,000 cars/yr.

 

[VL3X]

What a well written and properly cited post @eriegz!

I'd say bucket A (zero or a couple small issues) will be the majority of vehicles delivered to North America, but there will likely still be some lemons and early resellers. The Emira will have been in production for over a year then and many of the initial bugs mostly sorted out (fractured brake pads, soft paint issues, faulty wiper motors, etc.). I do think there will be some lingering software issues and warranty claims most First Edition owners will have to deal with though. This is the case with many first year models... We can only hope Lotus stocks up on their parts supply and continues to expand their dealer network.

 

[nelly111s]

I’d say it’s 100%.
I have one Emira and it’s perfect.