Emira residual values

[Calran]

Hi All,

I’ve seen a few messages around residuals, so thought I’d open a thread to see what people’s thoughts are on expected residuals for the Emira?

Appreciate it’s mostly guess work as nobody really knows how the car will drive etc but seem some messages suggesting lotus are targeting 51-54% residual values after 3 years, which seems like quite big drop to me.

Cayman GT4 seem to be top of the list, which of course is an excellent car but Porsche limit supply too, to keep demand high, which lotus don’t look like they have any intention of doing with the first edition.

Still trying to justify the £80k new spend. Said I’d never buy a new car because of the depreciation hit but fell in love with this car as soon as I saw it and have always loved lotus. Still trying to justify the amount of lost money in depreciation to myself.

I’ve done a bit or research mainly through google and autotrader etc and if we use the Exige as an example, it looks to retain approx 67% after 3 years with 20,000 mileage.

At say £78k spend (I’m going black pack and few others) the difference between say a 52% residual value ( loss of £37,440) in value over 3 years as has been suggested vs 67% residual (loss of £25,740) quite a bit.

Don’t know if I could stomach a nearly £40k loss over 3 years, so wondering if I’m better spending a similar budget on a 2016/2017 car that’s already had that big hit and then maybe look for a used Emira around 2024-2025 time, when if the above is correct, the first editions will be around the £40 k mark.

I know the Emira is more of a mass produced car than the Evora but hoping because of the way it looks and being the “limited” first edition, it should have pretty strong residuals of 60% +. I could be way off hear though.

Seem a few posts saying they may even go up in value, but other than they very first flippers, can’t see that being the case.

Appreciate, it’s all guess work, but not very knowledgeable on this subject, so if people have any thoughts on this and let me know if I’m miles of or not, it would be really appreciated.

Cheers,

 

[CaptainSensible]

Total guess on my part but I think residuals will be strong for the following reasons:

- Demand massively outstripping supply, many deposit holders won't get their car until 2023
- General consensus is the car looks great value offering super car looks and handling for the price of a new M3
- Lotus residuals are generally very good, can't see any reason why the Emira will be wildly different

So a total guess from me is a V6 FE will still be worth about £55k after 3 years

Not a great comparison perhaps, but I bought my Mustang brand new in 2017 for £36k. Current value is £32k according to WBAC. Similarly a car which offers great VFM, and where demand massively outstripped supply (I had to wait a year between order and delivery).

 

[New to Lotus]

The car market is mad at the moment mainly due to new cars not being delivered so it's hard to read. But I don't see an emira ever being worth 37k what would an evora be worth then? inflation is here and will continue for a while yet, that will inflate car prices so i can't see many i4 base cars getting delivered at 60k either, as they seem to be following everything porsche I can see a base car being very basic and once you have added a steering wheel and windows it will cost a lot more.

 

[Calran]

Total guess on my part but I think residuals will be strong for the following reasons:

- Demand massively outstripping supply, many deposit holders won't get their car until 2023
- General consensus is the car looks great value offering super car looks and handling for the price of a new M3
- Lotus residuals are generally very good, can't see any reason why the Emira will be wildly different

So a total guess from me is a V6 FE will still be worth about £55k after 3 years

Not a great comparison perhaps, but I bought my Mustang brand new in 2017 for £36k. Current value is £32k according to WBAC. Similarly a car which offers great VFM, and where demand massively outstripped supply (I had to wait a year between order and delivery).

Thanks for the reply.

I hope your 55k mark is about correct as that would be close to 70% residual mark or a £23k loss or £7800 pa. Hopefully Lotus, like Porsche limit supply to keep demand and prices high, but have a feeling they will just pump out as many as they can. Was surprised to hear that first edition is not limited yet, and looks like you can still get one well into next year from what I’ve heard/read which isn’t great.

With your mustang; you must be very happy with that. I guess, we can’t really use today’s market as a base for comparison as it’s nuts. A friend of mine bought a 1 year old bmw 240i back in 2018 and last week sold it for £4K more than he bought it with an extra 10k on the clock, which is something special when BMW are known for their depreciation from new, crazy crazy times!

 

[Calran]

The car market is mad at the moment mainly due to new cars not being delivered so it's hard to read. But I don't see an emira ever being worth 37k what would an evora be worth then? inflation is here and will continue for a while yet, that will inflate car prices so i can't see many i4 base cars getting delivered at 60k either, as they seem to be following everything porsche I can see a base car being very basic and once you have added a steering wheel and windows it will cost a lot more.

Yeah, agreed. Really want to see what price for the base V6 will be and the option list prices too. Hopefully they will be available soon.

 

[Calran]

Total guess on my part but I think residuals will be strong for the following reasons:

- Demand massively outstripping supply, many deposit holders won't get their car until 2023
- General consensus is the car looks great value offering super car looks and handling for the price of a new M3
- Lotus residuals are generally very good, can't see any reason why the Emira will be wildly different

So a total guess from me is a V6 FE will still be worth about £55k after 3 years

Not a great comparison perhaps, but I bought my Mustang brand new in 2017 for £36k. Current value is £32k according to WBAC. Similarly a car which offers great VFM, and where demand massively outstripped supply (I had to wait a year between order and delivery).

Out of interest, do you think the residual on the FE will be better than the base cars? Usually heavily optioned cars depreciate quicker but given this should be a “limited edition” hoping that hold value better

 

[New to Lotus]

The fe package is already discounted so I think they will be worth more than a base v6 car. As I only see options going up in price in the future.
Just for a laugh I configured a 718 s boxster this to me is what lotus see as a direct competitor for the i4 car look at the specs of both cars you will see why, the car starts at 55k by the time you added some spec I was at just under 70k.
I think the v6 is pitched at the 718 gts that starts at 65k by the time I was anywhere near the spec of an fe emira I was at 85k and I can't get one of them for 18 months either. Let's not even mention a gt4 which I couldn't buy even if I had a 110k to get to the equivalent fe spec.

 

[Nova]

Out of interest, do you think the residual on the FE will be better than the base cars? Usually heavily optioned cars depreciate quicker but given this should be a “limited edition” hoping that hold value better

I really doubt it. First edition cars are rarely more desirable. They are almost never the most powerful, nor will they have the newest tech, and will be missing many of the updates that come along for the life of the car. Except for mass market cars like the Mustang or Corvette, very few early examples of cars are that particularly desirable.

 

[donskibeat]

Surely this is all just guess work - no one can tell what a new model will be worth in x months or x years time, especially with changing laws and rules relating to emissions that may come in during that time which would affect the V6 models more. Anything could change between now and 1 year or 3 years time.

But while you are at it - if someone could tell me tomorrow nights lottery numbers that would be great

 

[New to Lotus]

Yes complete guess work I'm buying the car cos I want it. That's good enough for me.

 

[donskibeat]

Yes complete guess work I'm buying the car cos I want it. That's good enough for me.

same here

 

[GarrethN]

same here

I’m with you on this. If you have to worry about just how much your car will be worth in three - four years time, maybe it’s better to hold on and see what happens with prices, but that would also bring different factors into account, demand will inevitably go down, higher volumes may lower residuals slightly although these cars will still be rare compared to certain others it’s being compared to such as the Porsche Common………. Sorry, Cayman. Who knows.

The thing is, I really want the car because it will make me happy and I intend to keep it for quite some time so I’d buy one regardless of what it may or may not be worth. Money doesn’t make me smile. Driving the car will.

 

[TomE]

As I said over on the finance thread, there's a difference between the residuals finance companies use for a balloon payment or guaranteed future value and what the cars will actually be worth. The 51-54% figure is a financing-related figure and hence will be on the conservative side.

In a normal market I'd reckon the residual would be 55-60% after 3 years. But this isn't a normal market: two year waiting list before any press reviews or demo cars, well-priced First Edition with usefully discounted options, the last petrol-powered Lotus, other cars in the same segment and/or price bracket also in short supply. So if the situation continues like this (a big if) I could see it being 60-65%.

Even if Lotus produce 5000 Emiras a year, these are still going to be relatively rare cars. So I'd expect values to be strong at 3 years and after that for depreciation to be very slow, as is the case with other Lotus models. My 10-year old Evora is still worth 50% of list price and has depreciated £3,500 in total over the last 6 years.

 

[Pegasi]

I am planning on keeping my car. But my response to this thread is based on the upcoming ICE age when these cars will be extinct. C8s, GT350Rs, Emiras, etc... All of these swan song cars will be worth a gazzlion dollars. Once production begins to slow these things will skyrocket IMO.

 

[Nova]

Surely this is all just guess work - no one can tell what a new model will be worth in x months or x years time, especially with changing laws and rules relating to emissions that may come in during that time which would affect the V6 models more. Anything could change between now and 1 year or 3 years time.

But while you are at it - if someone could tell me tomorrow nights lottery numbers that would be great

I am basing my wild ass guess on what I have seen happen to other first editon cars. Who values the first year Skyline GTR? The first edition AMG GT? First year of the R8? NSX? S2000? WRX STI? Esprit? For all these cars, the most desirable is usually some later generation/variant.

 

[Balboa]

Hi All,

I’ve seen a few messages around residuals, so thought I’d open a thread to see what people’s thoughts are on expected residuals for the Emira?

Appreciate it’s mostly guess work as nobody really knows how the car will drive etc but seem some messages suggesting lotus are targeting 51-54% residual values after 3 years, which seems like quite big drop to me.

Cayman GT4 seem to be top of the list, which of course is an excellent car but Porsche limit supply too, to keep demand high, which lotus don’t look like they have any intention of doing with the first edition.

Still trying to justify the £80k new spend. Said I’d never buy a new car because of the depreciation hit but fell in love with this car as soon as I saw it and have always loved lotus. Still trying to justify the amount of lost money in depreciation to myself.

I’ve done a bit or research mainly through google and autotrader etc and if we use the Exige as an example, it looks to retain approx 67% after 3 years with 20,000 mileage.

At say £78k spend (I’m going black pack and few others) the difference between say a 52% residual value ( loss of £37,440) in value over 3 years as has been suggested vs 67% residual (loss of £25,740) quite a bit.

Don’t know if I could stomach a nearly £40k loss over 3 years, so wondering if I’m better spending a similar budget on a 2016/2017 car that’s already had that big hit and then maybe look for a used Emira around 2024-2025 time, when if the above is correct, the first editions will be around the £40 k mark.

I know the Emira is more of a mass produced car than the Evora but hoping because of the way it looks and being the “limited” first edition, it should have pretty strong residuals of 60% +. I could be way off hear though.

Seem a few posts saying they may even go up in value, but other than they very first flippers, can’t see that being the case.

Appreciate, it’s all guess work, but not very knowledgeable on this subject, so if people have any thoughts on this and let me know if I’m miles of or not, it would be really appreciated.

Cheers,

Keep the car for 7 years and it will take the punch out of the depreciation. You'll always take a bath owning any new car only 3 years

 

[Balboa]

I’m with you on this. If you have to worry about just how much your car will be worth in three - four years time, maybe it’s better to hold on and see what happens with prices, but that would also bring different factors into account, demand will inevitably go down, higher volumes may lower residuals slightly although these cars will still be rare compared to certain others it’s being compared to such as the Porsche Common………. Sorry, Cayman. Who knows.

The thing is, I really want the car because it will make me happy and I intend to keep it for quite some time so I’d buy one regardless of what it may or may not be worth. Money doesn’t make me smile. Driving the car will.

Porsche Common (Love it) My favorite line - 'Everyone has a Porsche - why do I need one...'

 

[TXEMIRA]

Porsche Common (Love it) My favorite line - 'Everyone has a Porsche - why do I need one...'

Lotus is interesting in that they may be one of the most well-known brands with one of the fewest volumes built/distributed.

Just low enough volume to be “rare” but just enough volume to not be a gamble brand.

Quite a unique combo. Add in the “last ICE” factor and this is special.

1 of X is usually valuable when X is truly limited. FE will do just fine.

I remember when it was rare to see a Porsche…

 

[Calran]

Cheers guys, good to have an idea, even if it’s guess work at this stage.

Of course, in the perfect world, I wouldn't have to think about any of this boring stuff and would buy it, enjoy it, end of. Unfortunately I’m not in that fortunate situation, so do need take all these things into account before going ahead

 

[Billyidoliser]

Surely the Evora 400 has to give some sort of indication on future values, similar price when new as the Emira V6FE, still going for £50-£55k with 25k miles at 6 years old! Agree with the statements that in the short term 6-12 months- might make money, 3 years lose £20k, then never worth less than £40-£50K depending on mileage, history and condition!