Future value estimate (UK)

[Calran]

Hi All,

Wondered if people feel the below is accurate estimate on the Emira Manual FE.

Just trying to do some kind of budgeting as got lots of stuff coming up house purchase/ wedding etc

I will be buying cash and likely keeping for 3 years or so.

Purchase price: £83,215 (includes black pack, taxes and a ppf)

Estimated depreciation per year: 11%

Depreciation after 3 years: 33% or £27,000

Value after 3 years: £55,754

Dealer fee at an estimated 10%

So estimated price offered by dealer: £50,178

Ultimate estimated loss in depreciation: £33,037

Of course, I know there’s lots that could change, with economy, future cars etc etc etc

Just wanted to see if people feel this is in the rough ball park? Had hoped it would be better but think this is realistic.

Cheers

 

[Beady]

Hi All,

Wondered if people feel the below is accurate estimate on the Emira Manual FE.

Just trying to do some kind of budgeting as got lots of stuff coming up house purchase/ wedding etc

I will be buying cash and likely keeping for 3 years or so.

Purchase price: £83,215 (includes black pack, taxes and a ppf)

Estimated depreciation per year: 11%

Depreciation after 3 years: 33% or £27,000

Value after 3 years: £55,754

Dealer fee at an estimated 10%

So estimated price offered by dealer: £50,178

Ultimate estimated loss in depreciation: £33,037

Of course, I know there’s lots that could change, with economy, future cars etc etc etc

Just wanted to see if people feel this is in the rough ball park? Had hoped it would be better but think this is realistic.

Cheers

i think you are £10k too high would assume £40k at 3 yrs and anything over this is a bonus

 

[TomE]

If your figures come from a financing calculation then the future value is likely to be overstated rather than understated.

 

[Lots_Of_Trouble]

mileage is also a factor , both ways, and not mentioned.
A garaged queen with 1000 miles will be worth more than a daily driven 20000 miler

 

[emiralust]

I like it when people react with a facepalm and then don't contribute to a valid question Ignore him
I tend to use the Optional Final payment on PCP's as a rough estimate as to where the price might be. You can never be accurate but if you're after a rough guide these aren't random values the manufacturer has picked. The table on Lotus' website here provides the optional final payment after 24, 36, 48 & 60 months. They're estimating around the £52.5k mark

Lotus Emira Personal Finance Plans | Lotus Cars United Kingdom

Drive home your dream Lotus Emira with a range of tailored finance offers.

www.lotuscars.com

 

[Calran]

If your figures come from a financing calculation then the future value is likely to be overstated rather than understated.

Thanks Tom. Not really, more just looking at the rest of the market etc and taking into consideration things like 2 year waiti list, last ice manual, so expected it to hold up quite well in comparison to some others

 

[Calran]

mileage is also a factor , both ways, and not mentioned.
A garaged queen with 1000 miles will be worth more than a daily driven 20000 miler

Yes, should have added. Did that on an average of 8000 miles a year which is what I’d guess if do. Would daily all through summer and drive as much as possible in winter

 

[Calran]

I like it when people react with a facepalm and then don't contribute to a valid question Ignore him
I tend to use the Optional Final payment on PCP's as a rough estimate as to where the price might be. You can never be accurate but if you're after a rough guide these aren't random values the manufacturer has picked. The table on Lotus' website here provides the optional final payment after 24, 36, 48 & 60 months. They're estimating around the £52.5k mark

Lotus Emira Personal Finance Plans | Lotus Cars United Kingdom

Drive home your dream Lotus Emira with a range of tailored finance offers.

www.lotuscars.com

View attachment 21314

Yes, always some people like him on the forums. Luckily most are v helpful.

Excellent, thanks for this

 

[Leonard]

As a rough guide a 2020 718 GTS are 64-68k at a dealer.
So say 62-64k private sale and 60k trade in.
Is the Emira going to have stronger residuals than the Cayman?
I'd say possibly not quite. But it's a newer model so maybe on par.

So above is looking at 2 years ish. I imagine both cars residuals will firm up in year 3. So if I had to rake a guess I'd say high 50s private sale. 3 years and 18,000 miles

 

[Tonyshepp]

The fly in the ointment is the base v6 at £66k. What I’ve noticed used values don’t actually factor in much cost for optional extras on other cars. For instance an Aston Martin with 30k of options is only 7-9k more than a base vantage of same year and age.

I think cars sold in the first few years won’t drop as much as those in years 3-4 as the desire to own a car now will outweigh waiting for 2 years for a new one.

 

[Dommo]

The fly in the ointment is the base v6 at £66k. What I’ve noticed used values don’t actually factor in much cost for optional extras on other cars. For instance an Aston Martin with 30k of options is only 7-9k more than a base vantage of same year and age.

I think cars sold in the first few years won’t drop as much as those in years 3-4 as the desire to own a car now will outweigh waiting for 2 years for a new one.

I think that's only the case if say you put £30k of options on a particular cars that isn't defined by a model specific variant like FE for the Emira vs Base.

A Vantage with £30k of options, to most buyers on the used market, will just be a Vantage judged on its price.....usually starting with a search from low-high and the preferred colour choice.

When there's a specific denoted difference in the model range between the same car.... Cayman S, GTS, GT4......Emira Base, FE, GT4 etc. the buyer is more likely to understand what they're getting and pay more for it.

 

[Beady]

I think you are still factoring in the post covid high value of used cars. If they are getting back to previous ‘normal’ then it will be much lower.

 

[Leonard]

I think you are still factoring in the post covid high value of used cars. If they are getting back to previous ‘normal’ then it will be much lower.

They have already dropped a good 10%.
With these Sports models being close out ICE before EV replacements I'm not sure the drop will be much more. Not in comparison to some more mainstream models anyway.

 

[Evotion]

I have always maintained that the FE V6 price of £78K will forever be the bottom and it will never go lower - ever. (future 2nd hand buyers won't pay the initial tax, and I expect the black pack uptake to get lower and lower)

I based this on a lot that has actually happened and some other expectations:

• It will likely end up being built a lot less than Lotus expect making it rarer
• It will be a lot rarer than the i4 regardless of any other factor
• My belief the car was actually undervalued at launch (though it was said that the HP figure was 416) by 5k to 10K
• That logistics issues will hamper roll-out - Has happened
• That general prices will go up - Has happened. It might get worse. The base V6 might be the same price and over the next 2 years the base i4 might even be £78k
• The attraction of a niche, relatively low volume, British marque with a manual and non-turbo V6 will be huge

I'd have gone as far as saying a FE V6 Manual will be £100k plus by 2030.

H O W E V E R - some things have changed.

• Lotus comms have never actually approved
• The overall state of the economy and global unrest is perilous to people's optimism
• ... and by far the worst of all... the cars coming out of the factory are, generally speaking, not of the quality that people were hoping for

If the car moves into 2024 and generally known to be excellent then all might be okay and I do not see the depreciation mentioned in the thread.
BUT if the problems remain and the car is known as an 'eye wide open' purchase then the figures might be close and this will be a shame for all.

 

[Beady]

They have already dropped a good 10%.
With these Sports models being close out ICE before EV replacements I'm not sure the drop will be much more. Not in comparison to some more mainstream models anyway.

yes but they went up 15-20%. There are a lot of used sports cars still on the market after several months, still at high prices because the market is falling and dealers paid too much. At the same time there are more sensibly priced cars coming new to market because the dealers are now lowering their offers. There are now 991s at Porsche main dealers coming new to market at same price or lower than independents (which have been on sale a long time)
They are getting closer to pre covid prices now but its 2+ yrs later so without covid interruption they would probably be much lower now. I hope the values hold up but still think there is more to fall