New production numbers prediction - V6 and i4

[Lotustoronto]

So now that we have a better understanding of the production delay's, what does everyone think numbers will look like until 2025?

Here's my guess in calendar year not production year.

2022 - V6 1,500 - i4 350
2023 - V6 3,000 - i4 2,000
2024 - V6 3,500 (incl. final edition) - i4 4,500
2025 - V6 0 - i4 6500 (electric sports car to launch alongside the i4)

2025+ ??

I honestly can not see more than those numbers from what is going on with production.


Would love to hear from the UK guys about what their gut is telling them.

 

[TomE]

Only a guess too:

2022 - V6 1,500 - i4 0 (sadly I think the first i4s will be delayed to Jan 2023)
2023 - V6 4,000 - i4 3,000
2024 - V6 3,000 - i4 4,000
2025 - V6 500 - i4 5,500 (V6 final edition, Type 135 launch and 1,000 cars built)
2026 - V6 0 - i4 4,000 - T135 3,000

But they might overcome the 7,000 per year bottleneck by 2024 and they could ramp up a third shift to cover type 135 rather than reduce i4 volumes.

 

[Lotustoronto]

Only a guess too:

2022 - V6 1,500 - i4 0 (sadly I think the first i4s will be delayed to Jan 2023)
2023 - V6 4,000 - i4 3,000
2024 - V6 3,000 - i4 4,000
2025 - V6 500 - i4 5,500 (V6 final edition, Type 135 launch and 1,000 cars built)
2026 - V6 0 - i4 4,000 - T135 3,000

But they might overcome the 7,000 per year bottleneck by 2024 and they could ramp up a third shift to cover type 135 rather than reduce i4 volumes.

Looks like our numbers are fairly close Tom!

I only guess some i4's for the asian market this year, I would think the Chinese owners don't want to feel left out at home.

Total of 9k V6 Emira's over 3 or 4 years - Certainly makes you feel special to be apart of it. Let's hope for more!

 

[Leonard]

Looks like our numbers are fairly close Tom!

I only guess some i4's for the asian market this year, I would think the Chinese owners don't want to feel left out at home.

Total of 9k V6 Emira's over 3 or 4 years - Certainly makes you feel special to be apart of it. Let's hope for more!

2486 Porsche 981 Spyders just for comparison

 

[DJS]

So 8,000 to 9,000 V6 Emira's worldwide in total by 2025 with a car that's very affordable, if that's the case then I just can't see the price of this model coming down very much especially the non UK cars.

= V6 Emira is a keeper.

 

[AR2]

Wait a sec, my understanding was that only the FEs come with the V6 (i.e. the ones sold this year)... but from what you're saying, they're going to be selling V6s till 2024 ?

 

[Leonard]

So 8,000 to 9,000 V6 Emira's worldwide in total by 2025 with a car that's very affordable, if that's the case then I just can't see the price of this model coming down very much especially the non UK cars.

= V6 Emira is a keeper.

You say that but 6177 Evoras were made. You never know. It's certainly not an exclusive number. I'd say sub 2500 is exclusive territory

 

[Leonard]

Wait a sec, my understanding was that only the FEs come with the V6 (i.e. the ones sold this year)... but from what you're saying, they're going to be selling V6s till 2024 ?

You have the V6 Base as well remember.
FE is purely the launch car with all the options thrown at it for a slightly preferential bundle price (like a 718 GTS)

 

[New to Lotus]

If only 1500 this year not many going abroad then?

 

[DJS]

You say that but 6177 Evoras were made. You never know. It's certainly not an exclusive number. I'd say sub 2500 is exclusive territory

I see what you are saying but the Emira is in a different league to the Evora especially when it comes to demand.

 

[AR2]

You have the V6 Base as well remember.
FE is purely the launch car with all the options thrown at it for a slightly preferential bundle price (like a 718 GTS)

So there will be a more sporty V6 down the line?

 

[emiraspain]

2486 Porsche 981 Spyders just for comparison

seems about right, but if comparing that car, surely you should really only look at special editions of the emira....of which we dont have any for us yet.

Im sure they wont do a spyder, but a targa could work couldn't it, could look quite cool and a real collectors item, the elise is a targa in reality of course, so not like they dont know how to do it .
But economically, why bother when they cant make the numbers they have in sales already and any new dev work, outside the very slight dev work for the 420/30/50 hp edition, will be on the type 1234533345454 electric sports car.
Anyway, off the tangent, back to the numbers.... Pricing and world economy will have an effect and I think the current rail strikes may just be the start in the UK and else where.. who knows, but people who dont live like us on this forum, and I dont live like many on here, have to be listened to and that should and will have a knock on effect. Sorry for the reality check.

One other factor, to Factor in, Porsche and Jaguar have no doubt been working on their electric sports cars for a little while, if not. LONG TIME. Jaguar had their hybrid concept 13 years ago, the one in Spectre James Bond, CX-75, that they never in the end made due to the worlds economy, but they already now have a few years experience on pure electric also. The only doubt there is that their boss said he would be going more Bentley style so maybe that throws a wrench into the works with an F type replacement, but the NEW 718, coupe and AND convertible, if they look as goood as I hope they will from a neutral point of view, well, they will come to market first, they will be porsches and have a huge budget, the only thing holding them back with be the 911, ie not to upstage it.

So if in 2023, or even design hints in the winter of 2022, Porsche releases something special, whether the EMira is the last ICE car or not, those porsche buyers tempted away from the now quite "boring" 718, could be very quickly tempted back. Before you say no no no, remember a large part of the Emira's customer base will be the 911/718 customer profile, old, grey hair, sunday drive, visit the children for lunch trip, golf course, tennis club etc. They, and I'd say thats between 30-60 % of this new softer EMira's market, dont give a hoot about ICE or V6, they car about design, comfort, what to be seen in etc. This, all of this, may change things around a little for the EMira numbers. Lets come back in 18 months and see, just about the same time I get the keys to the EMira V6 manual, position 34

Anyway, I've walked the dogs, Ive taken the real car for a drive, then felt it was time to impose my ilogical logic on the world.

 

[simonb]

I think i4 is already delayed to 2023, I would not wager on customers getting a 72 plate, unless this gets resolved fairly quickly

 

[Emirahep]

So 8,000 to 9,000 V6 Emira's worldwide in total by 2025 with a car that's very affordable, if that's the case then I just can't see the price of this model coming down very much especially the non UK cars.

= V6 Emira is a keeper.

There are so many factors that will ultimately determine resale value, that it is really hard to predict. A big one is number of cars produced and clearly the Emira is not a limited run car like a 911R. Neither will it be produced and sold in such small numbers for it to be really scarce, like an SLS.

But the biggest likely impact on long term resale IMO is likely to be government policy in terms of emissions, road tax, petrol duty etc as around most of the world they continue to encourage people either off the road and into public transport or into electric. It is already very expensive to run a car like a V6 in the UK and only going to go up.

I am not buying my Emira for potential resale or classic status, rather that I have never owned a Lotus, yet have always loved them, and as a Brit it feels great to be able to buy one that I feel I could live with (test drove an Elise years ago - my wife thought I was mad, we ended up with an MX5 !).

I have a couple of other nice manual drivers cars (991.2 GT3 Touring and a GR Yaris) so will be really interested to finally driver my V6 manual FE and see how it compares. If it holds its value well that will be a bonus.

PS I also have never owned a green car or had a tan interior - go team DV !

 

[Leonard]

So there will be a more sporty V6 down the line?

Yes most likely a GT430 run out model

 

[Leonard]

There are so many factors that will ultimately determine resale value, that it is really hard to predict. A big one is number of cars produced and clearly the Emira is not a limited run car like a 911R. Neither will it be produced and sold in such small numbers for it to be really scarce, like an SLS.

But the biggest likely impact on long term resale IMO is likely to be government policy in terms of emissions, road tax, petrol duty etc as around most of the world they continue to encourage people either off the road and into public transport or into electric. It is already very expensive to run a car like a V6 in the UK and only going to go up.

I am not buying my Emira for potential resale or classic status, rather that I have never owned a Lotus, yet have always loved them, and as a Brit it feels great to be able to buy one that I feel I could live with (test drove an Elise years ago - my wife thought I was mad, we ended up with an MX5 !).

I have a couple of other nice manual drivers cars (991.2 GT3 Touring and a GR Yaris) so will be really interested to finally driver my V6 manual FE and see how it compares. If it holds its value well that will be a bonus.

PS I also have never owned a green car or had a tan interior - go team DV !

Very jealous of the 991 touring
As you say tax will indeed ultimately determine what is and is not classic status. If governments really try and force large NA capacity engines off the road only the really special cars will be left eventually. You would hope the Emira would be one. But if it relies on 10,000 people willing to pay 5000 pounds a year just to tax them and petrol at £3 a litre who knows..

 

[John 1963]

So 8,000 to 9,000 V6 Emira's worldwide in total by 2025 with a car that's very affordable, if that's the case then I just can't see the price of this model coming down very much especially the non UK cars.

= V6 Emira is a keeper.

So they will produce more emira cars in two years than the evora over ten years ; and you reckon it will be a keeper how !

 

[Emirahep]

Very jealous of the 991 touring
As you say tax will indeed ultimately determine what is and is not classic status. If governments really try and force large NA capacity engines off the road only the really special cars will be left eventually. You would hope the Emira would be one. But if it relies on 10,000 people willing to pay 5000 pounds a year just to tax them and petrol at £3 a litre who knows..

Spot on !

ref the Touring, bought it from a flipper so don’t ask me about resale value

The Porsche GT allocation circus is for another forum….

 

[emiraspain]

There are so many factors that will ultimately determine resale value, that it is really hard to predict. A big one is number of cars produced and clearly the Emira is not a limited run car like a 911R. Neither will it be produced and sold in such small numbers for it to be really scarce, like an SLS.

But the biggest likely impact on long term resale IMO is likely to be government policy in terms of emissions, road tax, petrol duty etc as around most of the world they continue to encourage people either off the road and into public transport or into electric. It is already very expensive to run a car like a V6 in the UK and only going to go up.

I am not buying my Emira for potential resale or classic status, rather that I have never owned a Lotus, yet have always loved them, and as a Brit it feels great to be able to buy one that I feel I could live with (test drove an Elise years ago - my wife thought I was mad, we ended up with an MX5 !).

I have a couple of other nice manual drivers cars (991.2 GT3 Touring and a GR Yaris) so will be really interested to finally driver my V6 manual FE and see how it compares. If it holds its value well that will be a bonus.

PS I also have never owned a green car or had a tan interior - go team DV !

at the current rate, "PS I also have never owned a green car"... thats not going to change any time soon...
go team any colour thats not green... haha

 

[DJS]

So they will produce more emira cars in two years than the evora over ten years ; and you reckon it will be a keeper how !

9000 cars worldwide is not a lot, I accept not super rare but fairly sparse, my point is the V6 that engine will die out in 2025 and there will be I4s all over the place in there droves in fact making the V6 potentially more desirable.

Remember no one wanted the Evora including me.

I take you went for the I4 lol