How bad will the Emira depreciation be?

[Cwolf]

Depreciation will be bad initially especially with all the people dropping their orders like flies. Give it a few years and this thing will come back like a raging train. No more manual gearbox and all steering gone electric, or cars have gone electric for that matter. These cars will be so highly sought after that everyone who refunded their deposit will regret

I agree with this except I don't think even initial depreciation will be bad. There is more demand still than supply and how that plays out will affect short run (5 year) depreciation. I agree in the long run they will be sought after as ICE sports cars with manuals will soon be a thing of the past.

 

[idleuser]

I present to you

2024 Nissan Z Nismo Marked Up to $158,495—or Best Offer

A Los Angeles dealer marked up a Nissan Z "Nizmo" by almost $90,000 citing its "low production" volume and "high demand."

www.thedrive.com

 

[EspritGuy]

I present to you

2024 Nissan Z Nismo Marked Up to $158,495—or Best Offer

A Los Angeles dealer marked up a Nissan Z "Nizmo" by almost $90,000 citing its "low production" volume and "high demand."

www.thedrive.com

What was this thread about?
Depreciate or deprecate?

 

[Gprodigy]

I present to you

2024 Nissan Z Nismo Marked Up to $158,495—or Best Offer

A Los Angeles dealer marked up a Nissan Z "Nizmo" by almost $90,000 citing its "low production" volume and "high demand."

www.thedrive.com

As long as $66k Nissans are Marked up to $158k in the US. We'll be alright bois...

 

[goto35]

Again at 110 with tax you are in a used exotic territory.

I also have a f430 spider which has actually appreciated since i bought it.

I placed the order already and car arrives in June of 24. Yellow with 6 speed.

Debating If i should give it up./ Just dont wanna loose an arm and a leg in a few years down the line.

 

[EyeFour Eemeerah!]

No worse than any other 2 seat sports car. I don’t think it will be quite 50% after three years but it won’t be that far off.

Or maybe it will go up in value. Anything is possible, as the flavor of the month dictates demand. My GT4 has gone up in value after three years in, not so much a function of being a flash in the pan but more a tried and true classic. Coupled with the fact they won’t produce anymore and it’s a winning combo. Maybe if Lotus kills the Emira, all those with them in hand will be sitting on their retirement nest eggs!! Doubt it, but again, anything is possible in this world!

 

[EyeFour Eemeerah!]

Depreciation will be bad initially especially with all the people dropping their orders like flies. Give it a few years and this thing will come back like a raging train. No more manual gearbox and all steering gone electric, or cars have gone electric for that matter. These cars will be so highly sought after that everyone who refunded their deposit will regret

We’ll see I guess.

 

[ChrisJ]

I have said all along I personally would budget £1k per month average depreciation over first 3 years. Fairly level for a few years after that I guess depending on p/ex or private sale.

 

[Finbarqs]

I think it'll be a standard depreciation on a specialty car like this. I'm sure people will start to sell their emiras after a year or 2 of fun, and the market will be flooded with their Emiras. So far, this car has not proven anything at this moment. Will there be other "Emira-like" vehicles on the market? Sure, there are plenty of competitor vehicles. But one vehicle that lotus has made that doesn't really have any REAL competition is the S2/S3 line of Elige's. Especially in the US, you'll never see another vehicle like those. And that's probably why if I look into my crystal ball, (and if ICE cars are still a thing) there will be a point that I think Elige's will surpass Emira's in value (as more and more end up on the curb...) But I'm just guessing at this point.

 

[EspritGuy]

I think it'll be a standard depreciation on a specialty car like this. I'm sure people will start to sell their emiras after a year or 2 of fun, and the market will be flooded with their Emiras. So far, this car has not proven anything at this moment. Will there be other "Emira-like" vehicles on the market? Sure, there are plenty of competitor vehicles. But one vehicle that lotus has made that doesn't really have any REAL competition is the S2/S3 line of Elige's. Especially in the US, you'll never see another vehicle like those. And that's probably why if I look into my crystal ball, (and if ICE cars are still a thing) there will be a point that I think Elige's will surpass Emira's in value (as more and more end up on the curb...) But I'm just guessing at this point.

Emira competitors, yes. Production levels are another matter.
For North America:
- 700 FE/1 produced mainly in 2023
- 600 FE/2 produced in 1Q 2024
- Lotus on record for producing 2000 more cars in 2024,
( not clear if that includes the 600)
- Dealer wait lists 50-100 deposits deep presently before Base order book opens mid 2024. New deposits now said to entail 12-18 month wait. Prices still TBD.
Looks like a lot of exclusivity for all of 2024 and much of 2025, moreso when you look at competitor production numbers.
The Emira will always be special.

 

[Climber]

I think it'll be a standard depreciation on a specialty car like this. I'm sure people will start to sell their emiras after a year or 2 of fun, and the market will be flooded with their Emiras. So far, this car has not proven anything at this moment. Will there be other "Emira-like" vehicles on the market? Sure, there are plenty of competitor vehicles. But one vehicle that lotus has made that doesn't really have any REAL competition is the S2/S3 line of Elige's. Especially in the US, you'll never see another vehicle like those. And that's probably why if I look into my crystal ball, (and if ICE cars are still a thing) there will be a point that I think Elige's will surpass Emira's in value (as more and more end up on the curb...) But I'm just guessing at this point.

700 + 600 is not a flood.. That’s about 25 per state… if everyone sells… I think it will always a rare… like the alpha Romeo 4C.
average depreciation on exotic cars runs about 14%.. Caymans & Boxsters about 4-5 % lotus should be somewhere in that range…

 

[kitkat]

I'd expect first couple years of depreciation in North America to be pretty mild due to limited supply and then drop like a rock as wilder variants of the Emira are released. The FE won't be the collector's edition -- it's for the drivers not the flippers.

 

[Lotustoronto]

I am going to weigh in on this topic. While a lot of members here are correct that North American production / allocation numbers when first announced was not very much at 700 +/- FE's. But that was back in 2021 / early 2022. World is a difference place heading into 2024.

With interest rates, inflation and cost of living increases we are now back to normality in the car market, meaning they depreciate again. The one point that sticks out to me is the number of cars available in the UK and the increase of FE's (2.0) for the NA market. Lotus last year stated it had 10,000 Emira orders on the books. We know that they produced around 2,200 cars in the first half of 2023 and about 500 in 2022. Meaning they would have around 7,400 orders still to produce. This is where I do not necessarily see this amount of demand anymore. With a good amount of Emira's for sale in Europe and UK not moving and quickly dropping in price, I can only assume that Lotus' order book has thinned right down, just like many of forum members which have dropped out. Re-sale for N/A might be decent for 2024, but I think @TomE assessment is bang on.

I imagine come mid 2024 allocations will be plentiful and anyone wanting an Emira will probably be a 6 month wait, if they don't buy a pre-owned one first. It will be interesting to see what the base Emira pricing will be and the fact that this has not been launched is a telling sign that it will have a more aggressive price point than many of us believe. I still think the F/E will be good value, but let's be honest, if they want to continue selling decent volume they can not continue to increase pricing when F/E's are sitting at dealers dropping their prices each month. The situation in the UK/EU in a way will have to dictate base Emira pricing. Also I am of the opinion that North America F/E V2's are just cancelled UK F/E spots. They announced an additional "600" allocations... I call BS it's probably double or triple that amount IMO. Yes, I wouldn't be surprised if 3,000 F/E Emira's arrive in North America in 2024.

My 2 cents.

 

[EspritGuy]

I am going to weigh in on this topic. While a lot of members here are correct that North American production / allocation numbers when first announced was not very much at 700 +/- FE's. But that was back in 2021 / early 2022. World is a difference place heading into 2024.

With interest rates, inflation and cost of living increases we are now back to normality in the car market, meaning they depreciate again. The one point that sticks out to me is the number of cars available in the UK and the increase of FE's (2.0) for the NA market. Lotus last year stated it had 10,000 Emira orders on the books. We know that they produced around 2,200 cars in the first half of 2023 and about 500 in 2022. Meaning they would have around 7,400 orders still to produce. This is where I do not necessarily see this amount of demand anymore. With a good amount of Emira's for sale in Europe and UK not moving and quickly dropping in price, I can only assume that Lotus' order book has thinned right down, just like many of forum members which have dropped out. Re-sale for N/A might be decent for 2024, but I think @TomE assessment is bang on.

I imagine come mid 2024 allocations will be plentiful and anyone wanting an Emira will probably be a 6 month wait, if they don't buy a pre-owned one first. It will be interesting to see what the base Emira pricing will be and the fact that this has not been launched is a telling sign that it will have a more aggressive price point than many of us believe. I still think the F/E will be good value, but let's be honest, if they want to continue selling decent volume they can not continue to increase pricing when F/E's are sitting at dealers dropping their prices each month. The situation in the UK/EU in a way will have to dictate base Emira pricing. Also I am of the opinion that North America F/E V2's are just cancelled UK F/E spots. They announced an additional "600" allocations... I call BS it's probably double or triple that amount IMO. Yes, I wouldn't be surprised if 3,000 F/E Emira's arrive in North America in 2024.

My 2 cents.

Some compelling thoughts here. But I think the 10,000 figure was deposits not orders. Yes Matt said it in the heat of launch euphoria, but even then the (pushback) belief was deposits were involved not actual build orders. UK customers should have been the main beneficiaries and weren't.
At the time the NA 700 units were announced there were over 2100 deposits which grew unmet.
It's quite plausible the extra 600 NA units resulted from EU/UK/ROW cancelations (price increase). Add in the depth of US dealer lists and it makes sense to further tap the US/Canada market with the most costly Emira before unleashing the 'basic' offering.

 

[RPM]

Depends on the time frame? I would image an initial dip when used cars are available, but the limited number of cars and the unique features (ICE, manual, etc.) will likely push the price up of the next 20 years until they are right back to purchase price or higher.

2007 Corvette, Elise, and Cayman were all about $50K (options dependent and the Porsche was in the upper 50's). Now clean low mileage examples...
Corvettes = $20K's
Cayman = $30K's
Elise = 30-40K's

 

[Coilover]

You can wait for the used market for Emiras.

The used market will be awash with them almost immediately... or wait a year (which in Lotus terms is nothing) and pick up a 'used' bargain with 1.5k miles on the clock and one boring owner who has finished having his mid-life crisis.

 

[mjw930]

I see a number here still think there is a 2 year book of orders for North America, I seriously doubt that to be the case. I canceled my order months ago from Naples, who claims to have well over 200 reservations yet I got an unsolicited call from the sales manager 2 weeks ago stating,

“Hi Mark, this is *******, General Sales Manager at Lotus of Naples and wanted to reach out to you. We just got word that we received a handful of extra 1st edition allocation and wanted to know if you wanted to grab one of them. Please give me a call as soon as possible, they are 1st come 1st serve.”

So, they worked through their “book” of orders and more than 100 already on the list said, “No”. Either there is not a real book of orders or they are screwing over those who are on that list so they can hook someone at a higher price or pack an ADM onto the deal.

Sorry guys but this entire rollout is one big shit show. Enjoy it if you ever get one but I predict there will be cars on lots, with deal to be had, by the end of 2024.

 

[kljman]

debating i should cancel my fe order.
$110 with tax is alot of money

Cars are a depreciating asset. Always have been. It's been a weird 10 years with no used cars available so we all have been spoiled. 50% depreciation isn't horrible if you drive the car.

For example I bought a 2002 Corvette C5. I drove it for 12 years (2014) when I bought a C7. I paid 32K for the corvette. Sold it for 12K with 60K miles. I drove that car for 20K for 12 years. ~2000/year or ~200/month.

Cars are not investments unless they are super rare. I enjoy my cars. I track my cars and I have a lot of fun for 200/month which I think all can agree is a good deal even with a 60-70% depreciation.
We have another event that will happen in the next 20 years if manufactures do what they are saying and move to electric. These last gas cars will become collector items. I plan to pass mine on to my kids and let them keep it. They will be collectable in 50 years past my lifetime but will be part of their inheritance.

So Drive your cars! Buy the car to keep it for 10-12 years and enjoy it. The economics will work. But if you are trying to invest, flip or whatever - cars is not the market to do that in.

I know many won't agree and that's okay - my only point is this.... if you love it and you can afford it ... then just go enjoy it.

 

[Finbarqs]

Also, we’re talking about supply, not demand… that’s a crucial element of valuation… if they’re proven to be relatively problem free, and really is the “super car with Toyota reliability” then maybe… but so far it’s proven to be very pretty!! When it sells, based on looks… it’ll probably settle in the 80k’s. If these cars pass the 100k mark relatively problem free, then I’ll think lower mileage examples will reach close to original msrp

 

[denk0815]

I'll add my name to the thread.
I was originally excited by the idea of the I4, but the "tuning" on the part of Lotus makes the V6 seem increasingly attractive.

Now I'm asking myself whether the loss in value between the manual and the automatic is really as great as is always claimed here.
The data collected on Autoscout suggests the opposite, but the sample is too small to assume a normal distribution.

Is there a database with historical data on this topic?

In other models (R8 Gen1), the price difference between manual and automatic is enormous.