How bad will the Emira depreciation be?

[EspritGuy]

This video could have been 3 minutes long and had the same amount of content.

The sky is blue, which is a blue shade, which I can see why my eyes that it's blue, because it looks blue, and so it is blue, the sky that is, just blue you know. Subscribe if you want more content like this. Now back to the sky being blue…

Edit: I don't believe the Emira will be down 30k in a year unless the economy crashes like it did in 2008.

Your point is that he Blew it?
As far as the video itself: early UK cars suffer widely reported teething problems, driving season coming to a comparative close, interest rates unfriendly. All in all a headwind.

 

[Nova]

Your point is that he Blew it?
As far as the video itself: early UK cars suffer widely reported teething problems, driving season coming to a comparative close, interest rates unfriendly. All in all a headwind.

My point is that he kept repeating over and over and over the same thing that we already know to be true (the sky is blue), as if he is sharing something uniquely insightful.

 

[EyeFour Eemeerah!]

My point is that he kept repeating over and over and over the same thing that we already know to be true (the sky is blue), as if he is sharing something uniquely insightful.

Play on words…”blew“ it. Blue-blew

 

[BeHappy]

My point is that he kept repeating over and over and over the same thing that we already know to be true (the sky is blue), as if he is sharing something uniquely insightful.

Yerah video was repeat repeat repeat - think most peeps will turn off at 60 seconds

 

[RPM]

Or…the Emira may turn out to be Lotus’ Edsel of the 21st century. By their own hand of course.

My grandfather was the New Orleans district sales manager for Edsel (Weigand - https://www.edsel.com/pages/division.htm). The Edsel was a departure for Ford from mainstream working class cars to luxury barges. It was an Ideal 50's luxury car introduced just before the 60's when consumers wanted compacts and the country was entering a recession.

Economics-wise we have inflation, high interest, and recession. Not a great time for expensive sports cars, and the market is dominated by SUVs. Porsche and Corvette however have shown there is a strong niche market for high-end sports cars. There is a waitlist to get the fancy Caymans and C8 prices remain strong. I think Lotus did the right thing by taking a great handling and fun to drive car like the Evora and essentially mainstream it with more conventional looks and a nicer interior. I think they dropped the ball in not getting it to market quick enough to capitalize on the launch buzz, but that's Lotus. They are still a small company that will get around to making you a car when they get to it.

Long-term this is the last of a dying breed of cars and will likely be a future classic in the same way the Elise is now.

 

[Nova]

My grandfather was the New Orleans district sales manager for Edsel (Weigand - https://www.edsel.com/pages/division.htm). The Edsel was a departure for Ford from mainstream working class cars to luxury barges. It was an Ideal 50's luxury car introduced just before the 60's when consumers wanted compacts and the country was entering a recession.

Economics-wise we have inflation, high interest, and recession. Not a great time for expensive sports cars, and the market is dominated by SUVs. Porsche and Corvette however have shown there is a strong niche market for high-end sports cars. There is a waitlist to get the fancy Caymans and C8 prices remain strong. I think Lotus did the right thing by taking a great handling and fun to drive car like the Evora and essentially mainstream it with more conventional looks and a nicer interior. I think they dropped the ball in not getting it to market quick enough to capitalize on the launch buzz, but that's Lotus. They are still a small company that will get around to making you a car when they get to it.

Long-term this is the last of a dying breed of cars and will likely be a future classic in the same way the Elise is now.

I can't speak for other markets but the US now has a more significant multi-modal income/wealth distribution. There is more of the sense that there are two economies - one that is affected by immigration/migration, and one that is not. Those who are affected have seen their wages suppressed since the 70s when the real wage started to diverge from GDP growth. If we break out the real wage into quintiles, we see that the upper two quintiles continue to track and even exceed GDP growth while the bottom two do not. The persistent oversupply of low-skill labor in the US led to the suppressing of wages and artificially low prices for consumer goods and services (hospitality, landscaping, farming). While the 2008 financial crisis was one that affected the upper-income groups, the present one does not - it primarily affects people who are sensitive to inflation of household staples and depend on borrowing to sustain their discretionary spending. Because of market efficiencies, wage growth will always lag behind cost increases. For this reason, I see two distinct realities and both are correct from their perspective: professionals, lawyers, doctors, and entrepreneurs all parrot the line "Oh the economy is bad" while continuing to spend on things like craft beer and Taylor Swift concert tickets, because only a small portion of their earnings go towards living expenses affected by inflation; meanwhile, lower-income families are putting off cavity fillings for their kids because they can't cover it this month due to rising costs in other areas of their life.

What I am saying is that there is a healthy segment of the US population that will continue to drive luxury spending much more so than after the financial crisis of 2008. They may slow down a bit but the current economy doesn't really affect them in any meaningful way. For sure we will see a bunch of Emiras being offered up once the first batch hits the US shores, but if Lotus does not significantly expand their production capacity, I don't believe the Emira will see hefty depreciation. Lotus UK's production volume dreams are in the upcoming electric car models.

Of course, what with the EV market pullback, my analysis above could be all wrong.

 

[Newguy1354]

It's only going to appreciate in price! Now delete this thread!
... Is what I want to say about this subject. But I guess it's just an unpleasant conversation for me. Make all the, "Well this probably isn't the car for you then." comments you'd like. Just because I can afford the car doesn't mean I'll be all fat, dumb, and happy about taking a $20k hit after working so hard to get it. I am betting it holds sticker for a year, only losing tax costs.

This car will be the most expensive car I've purchased, 1st Lotus, and the 1st brand new sports car I've ever purchased. For me it's different from all the used sports cars I've bought and hunted for the best deals on. And that's what I think will help these cars hold their value here in the states. I saw this car 2 1\2 years ago and fell in love. Put down my deposit right away.
All the Lotus F-ery and price increases have almost scared me off. But I think once I have this car on the road heading to a Cars and Coffee. It'll be worth it. I think all the excitement that this car started will return to those who see it. It's a want, and I think it'll be wanted.

 

[Porter]

[What the heck thumbnail ]the Fe 1.0 need to hurry up and arrive in NA. It’s hard to believe this car fully loaded will drop $30k in a year over here.
Is this happening in other areas like Australia, china, Japan?

The current situation in the UK is likely not relevant to other markets. They've been going through some not very good things, economically. Also, the way that they structure auto finance makes car buyers extremely sensitive to interest rate changes. The US market has some sensitivity to that but nowhere near as extreme.

 

[Fasttoys]

Economic condition, inflation, interest rates, wars the list is long that will cause issues on asset values,. The good news Lotus won’t make enough for the USA in first 3 years for the car to drop 50% in 5 years. it’s the last ICE Lotus and manual ICE sports car. First on the list LE your around 92k, same car is 100k plus with new pricing. Look at a 2011 Evora online price, still doing well. Many people in the USA haven't seen the car or even know Lotus is still in business. That % of the population that can afford one Will search to buy one. So many variable, I would not worry. But hoping in a stagflation environment for prices to drop I don’t see that anytime soon. Just wait GM just raised the C8 by 2k and now with the UAW deal expect more car prices to go up to absorb the pay-outs.

 

[Mh59]

I don't know why the number of Emiras available on the used market in the UK keeps coming up as though it's relevant for any other market. The UK economy been in a tough situation for the last year and a half in ways that are not at all true in the US, despite inflation making some consumer goods elevated compared to historic trend.

But the UK has a completely different set of challenges, and the relative affordability of this car shifted pretty significantly with interest rates in that market due to the way they structure auto finance.

We very well may end up seeing a scenario where there are bunch of used Emiras sitting unbought in the UK, while other markets have high demand and long waits for inventory, with used units only appearing periodically and not for long.

I think you've hit the nail on the head there. There are indeed vehicles (including mine) that are listed at substantial discounts to list price (£10K lower) and are not selling. I read an article this week that Supercar sales (and I know the Emira isn't quite in that realm) are down 2/3rds compared to last year, with most experts in that area claiming the relatively high interest rates and subsequent cost of living pressures.

My reason for sale isn't due to financial pressures but the need for more seats to ferry the kids about. I am expecting to keep hold of the car for another 6 months or so when things will hopefully stabilise.

 

[Fasttoys]

I think you've hit the nail on the head there. There are indeed vehicles (including mine) that are listed at substantial discounts to list price (£10K lower) and are not selling. I read an article this week that Supercar sales (and I know the Emira isn't quite in that realm) are down 2/3rds compared to last year, with most experts in that area claiming the relatively high interest rates and subsequent cost of living pressures.

My reason for sale isn't due to financial pressures but the need for more seats to ferry the kids about. I am expecting to keep hold of the car for another 6 months or so when things will hopefully stabilise.

I heard the UK is in a recession, true of false? That would have effect on the resale values plus the car has been in your area for over a year now. The Emira is truly a refreshed version of the last car which I owned. I will have a Z06 DCT and a manual Emira to me best of both worlds.

 

[Mh59]

I heard the UK is in a recession, true of false? That would have effect on the resale values plus the car has been in your area for over a year now. The Emira is truly a refreshed version of the last car which I owned. I will have a Z06 DCT and a manual Emira to me best of both worlds.

No recession in the UK but cost of living pressures and high interest rates in comparison to the last 10 year+ historic lows are proving a shock for many who have enjoyed cheap money for a long time.

Not good for those trying to sell for what would be sensible prices. I can't imagine any of those that continue to list at 80-87K are being shifted. There are even <50 miles pre-registered examples that have well over 10K off list price so I can't understand why anyone would stay in the queue unless they had very specific requirements that were not worth compromising on for substantial savings.

 

[Fasttoys]

No recession in the UK but cost of living pressures and high interest rates in comparison to the last 10 year+ historic lows are proving a shock for many who have enjoyed cheap money for a long time.

Not good for those trying to sell for what would be sensible prices. I can't imagine any of those that continue to list at 80-87K are being shifted. There are even <50 miles pre-registered examples that have well over 10K off list price so I can't understand why anyone would stay in the queue unless they had very specific requirements that were not worth compromising on for substantial savings.

We are seeing the FOMO end here as well on luxury goods, watches, higher end cars, housing depending on locations are taken depreciating hits . To be fair to the Emira how are other sports cars in the same pricing range doing? I bet they are lower compared to the past. Unfortunately very few people pay cash and rely on financing their cars/toys. Rates are up & the 0% rates at least in our area are over, we now sit at 6% plus if you have A paper credit. Cars depreciate unless you buy a special lower volume sports car or a Porsche GT4/GT3/GT3RS at MSRP. 10% to 15% depreciation should be expected, the C8 Corvette is finally dropping & GM is producing more cars than demand plus add higher interest rates they will start seeing many sitting on lots. I have a Z06 at MSRP on a wait list for 3 years, but only holding them off because I am setting up my new garage and having a pool built and wanted a 2024 version with upgraded features. In normal times like pre-Covid & before the FOMO if looking for a better Price it’s was always best to find a preowned. last 2 years been upside down crazy it was opposite, Example a Rolex Sub no date new was 9k, and on the used market it was 12k to 16k. You bought new and sold it days later for 15k.

 

[Gprodigy]

Doug describes the US car market turn in this new video. He repeats very clearly that "the flipping days are over, do not buy a car right now to flip." The only exceptions are rare exotics.

This makes me curious about the quantity of driving enthusiast vs Fe1.0 flippers? The answer to that question will set the stage for the depreciation curve soon.

I'm hoping the "limited run on manual transmissions" and "the last ICE car for lotus" help maintain the Emira's prestige.

 

[EspritGuy]

Doug describes the US car market turn in this new video. He repeats very clearly that "the flipping days are over, do not buy a car right now to flip." The only exceptions are rare exotics.

This makes me curious about the quantity of driving enthusiast vs Fe1.0 flippers? The answer to that question will set the stage for the depreciation curve soon.

I'm hoping the "limited run on manual transmissions" and "the last ICE car for lotus" help maintain the Emira's prestige.

I think we are good as long as supply remains less than demand.
How long is this a niche that begs scratching?
Electrification is the threat, and an expensive one at that.

 

[seriously]

If the cars are limited due to Lotus being Lotus there is a chance depreciation will be kept at bay. Even with the increase in price it’s still only in competition with the cayman and I think is far more novel.

 

[eriegz]

Throwing in another data point here: I also loosely follow the used Porsche GT3 market, and there's a clean, low-mileage, manual transmission 2018 GT3 that's been for sale for almost a year now:

• Jan 2023: $250,000 CAD
• Mar 2023: $240,000 CAD
• May 2023: $233,000 CAD
• Nov 2023: $210,000 CAD

Definitely some market-wide price movement right now.

 

[Hell4Leather]

Throwing in another data point here: I also loosely follow the used Porsche GT3 market, and there's a clean, low-mileage, manual transmission 2018 GT3 that's been for sale for almost a year now:

• Jan 2023: $250,000 CAD
• Mar 2023: $240,000 CAD
• May 2023: $233,000 CAD
• Nov 2023: $210,000 CAD

Definitely some market-wide price movement right now.

I like the Emira but, stating the obvious, apples to apples an Emira is not a GT3; it’s a Cayman

 

[Gprodigy]

I like the Emira but, stating the obvious, apples to apples an Emira is not a GT3; it’s a Cayman

I think they’re saying Cayman with GT3 scarcity, bc Lotus inability to deliver cars to the NA will keep
‘demand > supply’ for a while.

 

[EyeFour Eemeerah!]

I think they’re saying Cayman with GT3 scarcity, bc Lotus inability to deliver cars to the NA will keep
‘demand > supply’ for a while.

Truth be told, I think “demand” has severely waned for Lotus. At every turn they are failing the customer, and those lured by the pretty faced Emira are jumping ship after seeing how CS, shitty build quality and issues, lack of communications and DELAYS run rampant with this company. You have the longtermers espousing how that’s “just good ol Lotus“, and the ones still holding out hope here in the states looking to be the first on the block to own one. The second wave of nightmares hasn’t even unfolded yet, as the support infrastructure is non existent