Ok that makes sense. I didn't realize the penalties were that high in some places.
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Lotus to cut up to 200 jobs in the UK
- Thread starter centerpunch
- Start date
Nick in Sydney
Emira Fanatic
I wouldn't be surprised if Russell Carr leaves Lotus sometime soon. His design team at Hethel has been folded into Ben Payne's Coventry design group and it's clear that the TYP 135 (if it ever gets built) will be heavily influenced by Ben's Theory 1 concept car.
Lotustoronto
Emira Addict
It's possible - I will say I really liked the theory 1. The Emira launch was so poor that I am sure Geely is looking to make changes going forward for the EV side. Emira really is going to be the last "old" Lotus car ever produced. Not sure if that is entirely a bad thing at this point. - I am still glad I have one, as I don't think any manufacturer will produce a car like this again. Last of its kind.
8,600 units sold in first 10 Months. Not a terrible number for a manufacturer in the luxury EV space and showing the correct growth path so far. Will they hit 12K for FY24 as projected? - Europe and Asia make up more than 50% of sales so far. I can see Lotus continually increasing EV sales in China. Still unclear the path forward in the US market, which is worrisome. Perhaps more will be revealed on the earnings call later this month.
Lotus have always been terrible at advertising new models
Years back when the Europa was released, in about 2005/2006, the publicity made the car average at best. About 3months after its release, me and 20 others went to Hethel for a factory tour. A car was parked in a covered area outside and a couple asked the Lotus guide what it was, it was the new Europa. The real deal and the released pictures were nothing a like. The car in the flesh, was a lovely looking thing. The car turned out to be a flop, very few sold and manufacture ended sooner than originally planned.
Unless Lotus/Geely get their act together, then Lotus cars will always suffer this sort of issue. I cant think of a single new car realse by Lotus, that has actually done the car justice
Years back when the Europa was released, in about 2005/2006, the publicity made the car average at best. About 3months after its release, me and 20 others went to Hethel for a factory tour. A car was parked in a covered area outside and a couple asked the Lotus guide what it was, it was the new Europa. The real deal and the released pictures were nothing a like. The car in the flesh, was a lovely looking thing. The car turned out to be a flop, very few sold and manufacture ended sooner than originally planned.
Unless Lotus/Geely get their act together, then Lotus cars will always suffer this sort of issue. I cant think of a single new car realse by Lotus, that has actually done the car justice
There's no breakdown of the models. It would be somewhat disingenuous to represent that total as all luxury EV's. Based on the percentages given, out of the 8,631 sold, it would seem about 3,500 were sold in the U.S. which would be almost totally Emiras. The article says 35% of that total were Europe, and 25% were China. Chances are most of the sales in Europe were Emiras too. I'm guessing most of the EV models were sold in China, so at least half of that total are Emiras.
This is the best sales total over a 10 month period Lotus has ever had in its entire history.
Considering that all the major manufacturers have either dramatically scaled back their EV plans, and some have even put them on hold completely, it's a mistake if Lotus puts all their eggs in that basket at this time. All these scale-backs means the infrastructure to support them isn't going to be getting built either. There's just no interest or support for it. I would estimate t's going to be at least another 10 years or more before EV as a common reality is going to be practical and supported, and that's only going to work if the world figures out what kind of power generation technology they're going to use to create the infrastructure to support a massive amount of vehicles. Charging stations need to be plentiful, much much faster, and able to handle continuous charging without overheating and reducing output. That and the costs need to come down considerably. The cost of battery replacement is so high, that virtually any accident is an automatic total. Insurance costs have gone up for everybody as a result, whether they have an EV or not. Nobody wants a used one because the battery replacement costs more than the value of the vehicle.
Nothing about the style of the Theory 1 says Lotus. It looks like any concept car that could be from McLaren, Lambo, or any start-up EV super or hyper car company. Compare it to the Evija or Emira, and it's not even close to the beauty those cars have. Those 2 cars look like nothing else from anyone. If Geely's decisions push Carr out, they're literally screwing themselves. I really hope some billionaire, maybe the guy behind the Ineos Grenadier, can buy Lotus Hethel and keep it together. There's still a viable future for ICE vehicles, and work is already being done by Porsche and others to come up with synthetic fuels to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
I hope Carr doesn't leave, because if he does then Colin Chapman's Lotus will truly be dead.
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Lotustoronto
Emira Addict
We will know the break down next week. My guess is EV and Emira sales split 50/50 (perhaps more Electra's than Emira??) and by the end of FY24 EV's will surpass Emira sales.
All other automakers are scaling back EV plans because they have developed, own and produce their own ICE engine plants (for the most part) and from a money making perspective it makes more sense to continue using the old tech instead of investing into the new stuff at the moment. While EV batteries right now are primarily coming out of the Chinese market, due to their dominance in raw material sourcing - it is putting a lot of pressure on the legacy automakers. Only exception here is Tesla in the US I believe.
I am sure Kodak did the same thing once digital camera's came about. Blackberry and Nokia also tried the same principals against the iPhone. (Blackberry CEO at the time famous last words "The iPhone didn’t look like a threat to the company’s core business. “It wasn’t secure,” COO Larry Conlee told the book's authors. “It had rapid battery drain and a lousy [digital] keyboard.”".)At the end of the day I love ICE manual cars, but this is for enthusiasts. EV's within 10 years will be estimated to take 50% market share in worldwide new car sales.
The lack of support and dwindling EV sales is a US/EU problem. In china this quarter EV sales on new vehicles exceeded 60% for the first time. This is a massive rise in EV sales in China. (the world's largest auto market) - So while every other European brand has declining quarterly sales YOY, Lotus actually has increased its YOY sales.
As for theory 1 - I think it looks like a modern take on the Esprit. Very Lotus. Very cool. In fact the last company car Colin Chapman drove was a 1981 Lotus Turbo Esprit. The Theory 1 is therefore a fitting concept to evolve into the EV sports car world. Lotus always pushed the boundaries of technology available and if chapman was still around he would be involved in EV tech. Just like Ferrari is. He was a visionary, can't see how the Theory 1 does not encapsulate all these ideas.
All other automakers are scaling back EV plans because they aren't selling. They've been losing billions on them. China has their own economy and issues. They'll have to struggle through the consequences of them like the U.S. and Europe did years ago.
Unless battery technology changes significantly (there are promising things in the works), EV's as they are aren't going to take over 50% of the worlds new car sales. The electricity generating and access point infrastructure just isn't there to support that, and unless I've missed it, I don't see any big change in that area. The only viable way we know of to generate electricity at that level and scale is nuclear, and nobody seems to want to go that way. So that leaves the inadequate systems we already have, that can't keep up with the demands of the significantly less than 50% of the world's vehicles that currently exist.
In addition, there's the environmental cost. EV's are not as 'green' as they've been touted to be. The plundering of natural resources to make the batteries (most of which China controls, which is why they're pushing it so hard) is not environmentally friendly, expensive, and no more infinite as a resource than oil. Arguably it can be said it might be less plentiful. You realize that within 10 years, all the current EV's are going to need battery replacements? Batteries that are going to cost more than the vehicle is worth? Who's going to bother? What's going to happen to all those vehicles, not to mention the batteries then? From what I've read, there currently isn't even enough lithium in all the world's mines to replace all those batteries. People can pretend and ignore all this all they want, at least for the time being, but the day of reckoning is coming on all of it.
There's also the wear and tear on tires and roads that EV's cause because of their excessive weight. Tires aren't green, and neither is concrete and asphalt. EV's can have a place, but that should be determined practically and realistically, not ideologically.
It's nice you like the Theory 1. I don't, at all. We'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I much prefer the Evija.
Batteries are recyclable. The most popular EVs barely weigh more than a modern BMW.
The reason to pivot back away from EVs is because it makes zero sense for Lotus, a sports car brand, to make boring SUVs. Leave the battery power SUVs to Tesla and get back to the brand strengths.
The reason to pivot back away from EVs is because it makes zero sense for Lotus, a sports car brand, to make boring SUVs. Leave the battery power SUVs to Tesla and get back to the brand strengths.
Modern BMW's are not the benchmark we should be comparing to.
Everyone has absolutely roasted the latest 5 series for being heinously overweight.
(Also...you bought a Lotus. Simplify, then add lightness... EV's at times check the simplify box, and virtually never check the 'lightness' box).
That said. yes batteries are recyclable. It's not the easiest thing in the world and of course there are losses. But even if batteries degrade, they are sealed units so there is no loss of mass, all the fundamental elements are still in there.
It can't be ignored however, that the life-cycle of EV and Hybrid cars are just not the same. We will likely never see 1 Million mile EVs. We will not see 40 year old EV's that get pulled out for a sunday cruise.
I used to hold the McLaren P1 as the ultimate halo car, the one car that if I had won the lottery or came upon some vast windfall I would get. Love the looks, the performance, the theory.
Watch one video about what state those cars are in now? I would never buy a hybrid super-car. All the batteries are dead, not easily replaced, not cheaply replaced, the cars sit and collect dust, not just because they are being 'preserved' but because they are non-functional.
Go look at used Nissan Leaf vehicles. You can have for 3-4k dollars. They were never 'expensive' cars but I think that's something like 10% of the original value retained?
If we do see a "leap forward" in battery tech. What happens to all the cars now? What if the new tech doesn't use Lithium?
This is interesting. I expect more of this to continue as manufacturers regain their footing and start producing the cars customers actually want.
jalopnik.com
Stellantis has said they're going to continue making gas engines for Alfa Romeo too "since that seems to be what customers want". What a concept, delivering what customers want to buy.
Dodge Fast Tracks Gas-Powered Charger Production Because Of Demand
The people yearn for a gas-powered Dodge muscle car, and Stellantis will reportedly oblige
jalopnik.com
Stellantis has said they're going to continue making gas engines for Alfa Romeo too "since that seems to be what customers want". What a concept, delivering what customers want to buy.
Can't disagree with most of this, I think we're mostly on the same page. I'll comment on your points but probably won't further run this thread off-topic
Certainly modern BMWs are not the benchmark, however, it is tiresome to hear EVs described as "tire and road killers because they are so heavy" when most of them are comparable weight to many of the other cars and SUVs on the road. Cars in general are heavy. EVs are not particularly heavier, at least not the most popular ones (Model 3 and Model Y).
Nissan Leaf is a particularly bad example because they featured non-conditioned batteries and barebones BMS. This is a recipe for battery failure. A Tesla drives around with constant battery maintenance going on to preserve the battery's life -- keeping it in the ideal temperature range and so-on. Much like your typical modern ECU keeps an engine "safe." It isn't that uncommon for Tesla batteries to last hundreds of thousands of miles these days.
The chances of future battery tech not being lithium-based is incredibly low. The whole battery-operated device world is running on Lithium. Smartphones, computers, power tools, electric lawn mowers, leaf blowers, etc etc. Even if we discover a new way, there's plenty of use for recycled lithium in the installed-base.
Regarding "electric" super cars... I don't get that. At all. Why would I want a 4500lbs supercar that is typically slower than a Plaid Model S? Certainly I'm not going to take a 4500lbs car to a track... I don't get that at all. Heavy, overweight but powerful and crazy-fast in a straight line cars.... that's over with -- get a triple motor Plaid Model S for $85k and call it a day. The excitement is in lightweight, engaging, tossable, fun to drive sports cars. Like the Emira. But maybe with more horsepower
Eyeball-distorting acceleration that EVs do better than anything else is fun in its own way, but it has nothing to do with what Lotus is known for. I hope Lotus abandons EV dreams of chasing Tesla et al, and goes back to their DNA. I'd love to see some Emira GT/S and maybe a proper successor to the Elise someday.
Agreed there's not much further to debate or carry on with.
I agree that EVs are not tremendously heavier than some exclaimed, and cars on the whole are getting bloated. But, EV Suvs or Trucks compared to their similar sized ICE brethren are a good 30+% heavier. It will matter over time, but I only think it's an issue where EV drivers are not paying taxes to upkeep roads where that is normally incorporated into petrol tax.
Also agreed about the other uses for lithium. I do doubt we'll have a radical shift any time soon, it's less about there being garbage we "don't have use for" (though..EV batteries are quite a massive scale. Being like thousands of laptop batteries stitched together). But not so that you would end up with a massive inventory of vehicles that would be abandoned and would result in tones more production related emissions.
Something of a silly example, but the Hummer EV when accounting for carbon emissions from factory (normally about 50% of the life time emissions of any vehicle) will be more carbon emissions over a 2-300,000 mile lifetime than a base F150 over the same time period even if you had a 100% clean electric source.
EVs seem uniquely terrible to me because they increase the "disposable" nature of vehicles, which in turn means more new vehicles made instead of making existing ones last longer.
I agree that EVs are not tremendously heavier than some exclaimed, and cars on the whole are getting bloated. But, EV Suvs or Trucks compared to their similar sized ICE brethren are a good 30+% heavier. It will matter over time, but I only think it's an issue where EV drivers are not paying taxes to upkeep roads where that is normally incorporated into petrol tax.
Also agreed about the other uses for lithium. I do doubt we'll have a radical shift any time soon, it's less about there being garbage we "don't have use for" (though..EV batteries are quite a massive scale. Being like thousands of laptop batteries stitched together). But not so that you would end up with a massive inventory of vehicles that would be abandoned and would result in tones more production related emissions.
Something of a silly example, but the Hummer EV when accounting for carbon emissions from factory (normally about 50% of the life time emissions of any vehicle) will be more carbon emissions over a 2-300,000 mile lifetime than a base F150 over the same time period even if you had a 100% clean electric source.
EVs seem uniquely terrible to me because they increase the "disposable" nature of vehicles, which in turn means more new vehicles made instead of making existing ones last longer.
On an average, EV's run just over 800 lbs heavier than their non-electric equivalents, and that's just passenger cars, not trucks or big SUVs. To me that's 'heavier' enough to matter. It certainly has an effect on tire and brake wear.
www.torquenews.com
I believe there's at least another 10 years of life for ICE vehicles, maybe even more. EV's might make sense in big cities, but not so much in remote or rural areas.
Instead of laying off hundreds of workers, I'd like to see Lotus focus on making great ICE, or at least hybrid sports cars and sports sedans. They've got a winner in the Emira, now let Carr design a 4 door saloon version. Put Ben's group in China and let them design and develop vehicles for China, which is capable of being an entire market all by themselves. Let Carr's group design for the rest of the world.
I know a few in here don't agree, and that's fine, but in my mind I would love to see a Carr-designed hot hatch as the entry-level model, a Carr-designed 4 door saloon as the mid-level model, and the Emira as their performance sports car. They could use the same 4-cyl engine and drivetrain for all 3 to economize development, and a newer generation Toyota V6 as the optional engine for the saloon and Emira. Price-wise, the hot hatch in the $35k-$45K range; saloon in the $55k to $70k range; Emira $90k-105K range. There could be a lot of component sharing across the 3; same brakes, same standard wheels, same drivetrains, a lot of shared electronics. Most of the difference is in style, interiors and functionality.
I'm not arguing here, I just want to see Lotus succeed and not fold-up. Stellantis is floundering with Alfa Romeo because they don't know what to do with it. It looks like Geely is struggling with Lotus because they badly mis-judged the EV future. I don't want to see either marque just disappear.
How Much Heavier Are Electric Vehicles? Here Are the Facts
We compare the top-selling battery-electric cars to vehicles with other powertrains in the same size category to see how much heavier the EVs are. The results surprised us.
www.torquenews.com
I believe there's at least another 10 years of life for ICE vehicles, maybe even more. EV's might make sense in big cities, but not so much in remote or rural areas.
Instead of laying off hundreds of workers, I'd like to see Lotus focus on making great ICE, or at least hybrid sports cars and sports sedans. They've got a winner in the Emira, now let Carr design a 4 door saloon version. Put Ben's group in China and let them design and develop vehicles for China, which is capable of being an entire market all by themselves. Let Carr's group design for the rest of the world.
I know a few in here don't agree, and that's fine, but in my mind I would love to see a Carr-designed hot hatch as the entry-level model, a Carr-designed 4 door saloon as the mid-level model, and the Emira as their performance sports car. They could use the same 4-cyl engine and drivetrain for all 3 to economize development, and a newer generation Toyota V6 as the optional engine for the saloon and Emira. Price-wise, the hot hatch in the $35k-$45K range; saloon in the $55k to $70k range; Emira $90k-105K range. There could be a lot of component sharing across the 3; same brakes, same standard wheels, same drivetrains, a lot of shared electronics. Most of the difference is in style, interiors and functionality.
I'm not arguing here, I just want to see Lotus succeed and not fold-up. Stellantis is floundering with Alfa Romeo because they don't know what to do with it. It looks like Geely is struggling with Lotus because they badly mis-judged the EV future. I don't want to see either marque just disappear.
Lotustoronto
Emira Addict
Lotus is competing more with Maserati than Alfa. Both in price and performance. Although they don't have a competitor for MC20 - one can argue that the Emira is exactly that. Interestingly - Lotus is set to sell a similar amount of cars as Maserati this year.On an average, EV's run just over 800 lbs heavier than their non-electric equivalents, and that's just passenger cars, not trucks or big SUVs. To me that's 'heavier' enough to matter. It certainly has an effect on tire and brake wear.
How Much Heavier Are Electric Vehicles? Here Are the Facts
We compare the top-selling battery-electric cars to vehicles with other powertrains in the same size category to see how much heavier the EVs are. The results surprised us.
I believe there's at least another 10 years of life for ICE vehicles, maybe even more. EV's might make sense in big cities, but not so much in remote or rural areas.
Instead of laying off hundreds of workers, I'd like to see Lotus focus on making great ICE, or at least hybrid sports cars and sports sedans. They've got a winner in the Emira, now let Carr design a 4 door saloon version. Put Ben's group in China and let them design and develop vehicles for China, which is capable of being an entire market all by themselves. Let Carr's group design for the rest of the world.
I know a few in here don't agree, and that's fine, but in my mind I would love to see a Carr-designed hot hatch as the entry-level model, a Carr-designed 4 door saloon as the mid-level model, and the Emira as their performance sports car. They could use the same 4-cyl engine and drivetrain for all 3 to economize development, and a newer generation Toyota V6 as the optional engine for the saloon and Emira. Price-wise, the hot hatch in the $35k-$45K range; saloon in the $55k to $70k range; Emira $90k-105K range. There could be a lot of component sharing across the 3; same brakes, same standard wheels, same drivetrains, a lot of shared electronics. Most of the difference is in style, interiors and functionality.
I'm not arguing here, I just want to see Lotus succeed and not fold-up. Stellantis is floundering with Alfa Romeo because they don't know what to do with it. It looks like Geely is struggling with Lotus because they badly mis-judged the EV future. I don't want to see either marque just disappear.
It is an interesting piece of information - https://www.italpassion.fr/en/maser...dwide continue to,with 20,600 units last year.
Interestingly - They also have a similar amount of dealerships worldwide - Although in the US they have over 100, so double what Lotus currently has. Same for Canada - 13 Maserati dealers vs 5 Lotus dealers.
Maserati and Lotus have similar brand prestige and price points for their SUV segment. The reason I bring this up - Maserati's sales have tanked vs previous year - generally they sell between 20-30K units annually. This is with a good range of ICE SUV's and Sedans. While I am not a fan of the aging Levante SUV or the Grecale, but they are selling the cars you want Lotus to make. Yet are failing.
Lotustoronto
Emira Addict
Not sure how it compares to target, but still overall positive. I was surprised to see Emira sales in China > US. Big market indeed.
Lotustoronto
Emira Addict
Don't think those Chinese sales were mostly Emira. Most likely EV's. They have been getting Emira's since the end of 2022 (unlike North America). The negative I saw was sales decline in the Chinese market. Which I think prompted this switch to hybrid tech. Also in the conference call they admitted to over producing the Emira and this was the reason for the pull back. They do not want to saturate any market. Expect the new smaller SUV to show the new Hybrid tech for Lotus. Another point is they said this hybrid tech will be shared with other Geely brands - namely Zeekr I think. The biggest plus I saw was they are taking good market share in the 100K+ auto market in China. I think the largest out of all British brands at the moment.
Also - first time we see EV's sell more than Emira. I expect this to keep growing - especially once they launch the smaller SUV.
Nick in Sydney
Emira Fanatic
A few observations from the earnings call:
1. They have a vehicle inventory problem in Europe (not China) and are taking a hit on margins in Q3/Q4 in order to clear this stock and be ready for the launch of the new TYP 134. They don't want to have old stock in the market at discounts when they're trying to launch a new model at full price.
2. Hybrid is going to be widely deployed, probably across all Lotus models. TYP 135 (Emira replacement) isn't even part of their Win26 strategy from a sales volume pov, so I expect it will be delayed until 2027 or later and instead perhaps they will launch an Emira hybrid.
3. Lot of focus on cost control in every part of the business given weak Chinese luxury car market, new tariffs in USA, etc. They will leverage Geely more heavily in the future to share development costs.
1. They have a vehicle inventory problem in Europe (not China) and are taking a hit on margins in Q3/Q4 in order to clear this stock and be ready for the launch of the new TYP 134. They don't want to have old stock in the market at discounts when they're trying to launch a new model at full price.
2. Hybrid is going to be widely deployed, probably across all Lotus models. TYP 135 (Emira replacement) isn't even part of their Win26 strategy from a sales volume pov, so I expect it will be delayed until 2027 or later and instead perhaps they will launch an Emira hybrid.
3. Lot of focus on cost control in every part of the business given weak Chinese luxury car market, new tariffs in USA, etc. They will leverage Geely more heavily in the future to share development costs.
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https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/major-car-brands-fines-electric-vehicles-zev-mandate
In the U.K., manufacturers are taking big financial hits in fines for not selling enough EVs. Aston Martin's fine was something like £50m if I remember correctly.
The money to develop a new entry level hot hatch Lotus just isn't there. Nor is the time it would take. A halfway house to use their expertise and raise brand awareness (in the U.K. and Europe anyway) might be for them to joint venture with, say, GM's Vauxhall/Opel to create a new Lotus Carlton/Cortina/Sunbeam? Then get involved in the WRC. They could maybe even build their own version of this car with all the approvals/certification in place from parts supplied (with their own bits sprinkled in) rather than just modify/tune something?
In the U.K., manufacturers are taking big financial hits in fines for not selling enough EVs. Aston Martin's fine was something like £50m if I remember correctly.
The money to develop a new entry level hot hatch Lotus just isn't there. Nor is the time it would take. A halfway house to use their expertise and raise brand awareness (in the U.K. and Europe anyway) might be for them to joint venture with, say, GM's Vauxhall/Opel to create a new Lotus Carlton/Cortina/Sunbeam? Then get involved in the WRC. They could maybe even build their own version of this car with all the approvals/certification in place from parts supplied (with their own bits sprinkled in) rather than just modify/tune something?
The Eletre is certainly helping Lotus out here, as per DVLA registration figures (which I posted here) there were more Eletres (322) registered in the first half of 2024 than Emiras (280). Neither of which are huge numbers of course, but at least there shouldn't be an additional whammy of missed quota fines incoming.
Also as an aside Vauxhall/Opel haven't been GM since 2017 when they were bought by PSA (Peugeot/Citroen) and are now part of Stellantis since PSA's merger with FCA (Fiat/Chrysler) in 2021
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