My thoughts on global postponement

[Matt]

1.As we all know, even if Lotus has opened a new factory, most of the assembly is done manually, and now there is a higher quality standard, so the new employees are led by the old employees to operate together, and it takes more than three months to completely assemble by themselves.
2. Supply chain problems due to the global virus situation, the transportation supply and other problems one after another, everyone knows that a car has so many parts, from all over the world.
3. On the issue of Brexit, which is related to the previous issue, the lack of manpower in various industries, including the logistics industry, and the need to re-do various EU certifications after Brexit will also consume the energy of the management.

In Harry's Garage factory exploration video, the general manager, also mentioned that by 2023, many of the new people trained before will be able to work independently, the production capacity will increase, and the supply chain problems will be stabilized, so we still need some confidence! Lotus made the plant from establishment to full operation in just over a year. At present, the production is carried out by a two-shift system, which is very rare in the production of previous models. Meanwhile, the orders in 2021-2022 exceed the total orders in the past six years before the introduction of Emira. Even the factories of Ferrari or Porsche, which have normal production capacity, when they have received more orders than the total orders in the past few years, they will also be delayed.

Let's keep our faith and believe LOTUS will do better in 2023.

 

[idleuser]

Lotus will sell more Electre than Emiras at this rate.

1) Shipping rates has come down, if Geely can't supply a even few thousand parts after the announcement of the Emira on 7/2021 then we have bigger issues at play.

2) Demand for goods has come down to earth, especially manufacture capacity for chips (which was the main bottleneck) for undelivered cars for most car manufactures.

3) Lotus has shipped less than 200 cars for the year 2022. Assuming they started to ship cars in September 22, that means they're averaging 50 cars per month over 90 days. Which equals to roughly producing 2 cars per day. Lotus are is on track to make 200 cars for the year.

All I'm trying to say is that the outlook doesn't look good for Lotus. I wish them much success but the writings are on the wall until they prove otherwise. With that being said, I'm still keeping my 5k deposit until I get my hands on this car.

 

[idleuser]

what is your #3 quantity based off of?

Harry's video. Wasn't it like 181 cars shipped to date. let say they shipped 500 cars YTD. That's an abysmal 5.5 cars per day. Lets round it up to 6 cars/day.

 

[idleuser]

View attachment 19927191 fully complete cars as of October 10th. At the time they have started 498 cars... that means 307 cars were pending completion. That was 50 days ago. From Schmees recent vid they showed at least #851 on the line... so roughly 350 more cars have started within a 50 day period.
Means the have cars awaiting parts... once those arrive there will be a rush of cars completed.

Sorry my numbers were a bit off since I couldn't directly recall the # of produced cars. So that's 8 cars per day with the best case scenario. It would take another 182 days * 8 cars per day to make 1456 cars.. Some 9/2021 depositors cars is already delayed until 2024.

 

[idleuser]

8 cars a day was based off October 10th... we don't know if they have a ramp up. Production lines don't start at full capacity. Also this is based off one shift... starting the new year they will have two shifts. So your numbers are off.

We do know deliveries are delayed by at least 1 quarter. My numbers are correct based on the information provided.

 

[Matt]

View attachment 19927191 fully complete cars as of October 10th. At the time they have started 498 cars... that means 307 cars were pending completion. That was 50 days ago. From Schmees recent vid they showed at least #851 on the line... so roughly 350 more cars have started within a 50 day period.
Means they have cars awaiting parts... once those parts arrive there will be a rush of cars completed.

So, does that mean the actual capacity is six cars a day ?

 

[emiraspain]

the only thing I would add here *actually not the only thing, is that I for one dont trust all those figures...and we dont know what they mean 100%
Cars out, means what? out the door and shipped, off the production line and into QC and maybe have to come back again, off the line but still with a few items to add later due to parts shortages and again, back later.... Unless a Lotus employee can tell me exactly what it means and its true, then we are all talking about things we dont actually know.... and although thats never stopped me, there has to be a limit or does there.... Would it be so unlike Lotus to hide the truth????

Also, Global Postponements ... do we know its global? I mean the NEW UK delays we have seen last week, has this been communicated to other nations, are there NEW global delays, its just the UK so far isnt it??

In addition, further delays to UK V6 cars cannot have much to do with brexit paperwork as that is clearly now sorted, or else no one would have their car in the UK, although there COULD be further delays for i4 cars as it would not surprise anyone to learn Lotus will potentially have done that arseways also and perhaps again EU cars get out there before UK cars.

Upon any UK delay, everyone jumps on the pound is low and its all done on purpose to make Lotus milliones more....bandwagon, even though pound to euro is less than 2% lower than it was 12 months ago, hardly earth shattering and enough to change all our plans for 1.92%. Against the dollar yes 10% less, but the Euro is also more than 8% less, EVERYwhere is lower against the $ as its the go to currency in times of xxxx hit the fan, but do we see cars been rushed to the US to make the most of this??? No we dont, any US customers have their cars, or been told they will be 6 months earlier than planned to take advantage of currency? Pound vs Chinese CNY 12 months 0.5% stronger.... so no reason apart from Chinese ownership and future potential for Eletre in their market to ship extra cars there.. Australia, not a big enough market to mention and again, less than 5% difference.
Also the pound is getting stronger by the day.... Companies dont make snap decisions on currency IMO, as they know things rebound when policies change, which was ALWAYS going to be the case after the TRUSSSSS disaster, which was just a few days/weeks. Prolonged low level change this of course, but not a few weeks and months even, worst case, just a price rise.
Anyway, Im off to get my sweat shop Iphone, terrible quality made in China enabled at the shop.... one of those statements is true and I do wish there was an alternative which wasn't made via virtual slave labour..... surely thats a business to look into! I wonder will the quality of the Eletre be better/worse than that of the Emira, thats a future post / thread I would like to see. I can see it being better personally and yet the Lotus die hards say its not a Lotus, just designed by them and a chinese car.... So again, like the iphone is hence Chinese and not american?. ok parent company in this case is american..but any manufacturing done there? should be, but .....

 

[NeilS]

I completely agree that we need to keep our faith but Lotus do need to up their communications to regain confidence. A couple of youtubers being given access does not make a communication strategy. I mentioned the quality of fitment of the seat belts in a demonstrator in one of the other threads and from the videos I can only surmise that they may have been fitted at a later stage. How is this being done? Are they carrying one of those infamous cardboard boxes we've seen out to the car park along with a few spanners, or are the cars returning to the line so they can be appropriately QC etc? Maybe I'll take a torque wrench on collection day.

 

[Matt]

No... again this was based off of one day... October 10th, 2022. Typical production lines ramp up production as time progresses. So might have been 8 cars on Oct 10th, but now 50 days later daily planned output could have increased. My point is that table was info for October 10th.

Get it, you mean it could be an exponential growth. Let's say, with optimistic estimate
,maybe today LOTUS has made 15 cars.

 

[Lotustoronto]

What can Lotus really say to UK customers at this point "sorry... we are prioritizing ROW deliveries to increase our brand awareness, foreign dealer group and the electric future? "

I don't think they will come out and say that and just lean on supply chain woes for now. My opinion is they probably are near the 1K mark for Emira production by the end of 2022. Matt did say they expect to achieve 25-30% of the production target for 2022. I believe the original estimate was around 3K cars for 2022. which would be around 750-1K by end of the year. Seems like 80% of production is currently set/shipping for ROW vs UK. In all honesty it makes complete sense. If your ambition is to grow globally, after investing 1 billion pounds in a Wuhan factory, I think 20-30% of Emira production will stay in the UK, and that is pretty generous I think.

Lotus has been trying for decades to gain market share in foreign markets, they finally have the product and demand they always strived for. They are going to strike while the iron is hot. This would indicate residuals for UK to be nice and high. Which is also not a bad thing. Hang in there for the guys that deposited this year and have a 2 year wait. I know it may seem like a lot, but considering the production numbers it makes sense.

By far the most important part to all of this is service and aftercare. If Lotus can get it together in being able to service this vehicle efficiently and build with good quality will make all the difference. Long wait for a once in a generation sports car, I can handle. If it's a piece of crap that falls apart and takes 6 months for a part to be replaced... that is where the relationship will surely end for most new Lotus customers.

I think Lotus has hidden the answers we are looking for in the last few videos from Harry and Schmee. I will be waiting, this Lotus is one awesome car.

 

[Carbuilder]

Personally, I think people are being far too kind and forgiving of Lotus.

For those in Canada that have put a deposit down, Lotus has done nothing, zero, nada, not lifted a finger to communicate in any way when we can expect a car. I put down a deposit on an FE. Then was told I would not get an FE. Then was told I would likely not get a car this year. Of course this is with me calling the dealer, heaven forbid the dealer should actually call a customer to keep them informed.

I have no idea if I am going to get a car next year; which will put the wait at over 2 years.. Am I to believe that Lotus has no idea when Canadian customers will get cars? Seriously? They don't know within a year of when delivery will be? Yes, there are slowdowns and supply issues, but that is no excuse for not letting customers know where they stand......at least within a year!

No, I have no sympathy for how Lotus is treating customers that have put down millions of $$'s in deposits. Tesla can get away with it. Obviously Lotus thinks they can too. From a company stand point it makes sense. Why tell a customer he is not going to get a car for at least another year....the customer may cancel the order and take their money back. Better to keep them in the dark and hang onto their money. Am I being unfair? I think I am being realistic. I have worked for a large corporation. You do anything you can to hang onto a customers money.

If I drop out it will not be because I don't think the car is amazing. It will be because I refuse to put up with how Lotus is treating me. Most put up with it. Some do not.

 

[emiraspain]

Personally, I think people are being far too kind and forgiving of Lotus.

For those in Canada that have put a deposit down, Lotus has done nothing, zero, nada, not lifted a finger to communicate in any way when we can expect a car. I put down a deposit on an FE. Then was told I would not get an FE. Then was told I would likely not get a car this year. Of course this is with me calling the dealer, heaven forbid the dealer should actually call a customer to keep them informed.

I have no idea if I am going to get a car next year; which will put the wait at over 2 years.. Am I to believe that Lotus has no idea when Canadian customers will get cars? Seriously? They don't know within a year of when delivery will be? Yes, there are slowdowns and supply issues, but that is no excuse for not letting customers know where they stand......at least within a year!

No, I have no sympathy for how Lotus is treating customers that have put down millions of $$'s in deposits. Tesla can get away with it. Obviously Lotus thinks they can too. From a company stand point it makes sense. Why tell a customer he is not going to get a car for at least another year....the customer may cancel the order and take their money back. Better to keep them in the dark and hang onto their money. Am I being unfair? I think I am being realistic. I have worked for a large corporation. You do anything you can to hang onto a customers money.

If I drop out it will not be because I don't think the car is amazing. It will be because I refuse to put up with how Lotus is treating me. Most put up with it. Some do not.

no your not being unfair, you have a right and your dealer who makes their living off selling cars to put food on their families table, have a right also.....
Its a poor show and it runs right through the globe...they do things when they want and without informing most of us when and why....

 

[Lotustoronto]

Personally, I think people are being far too kind and forgiving of Lotus.

For those in Canada that have put a deposit down, Lotus has done nothing, zero, nada, not lifted a finger to communicate in any way when we can expect a car. I put down a deposit on an FE. Then was told I would not get an FE. Then was told I would likely not get a car this year. Of course this is with me calling the dealer, heaven forbid the dealer should actually call a customer to keep them informed.

I have no idea if I am going to get a car next year; which will put the wait at over 2 years.. Am I to believe that Lotus has no idea when Canadian customers will get cars? Seriously? They don't know within a year of when delivery will be? Yes, there are slowdowns and supply issues, but that is no excuse for not letting customers know where they stand......at least within a year!

No, I have no sympathy for how Lotus is treating customers that have put down millions of $$'s in deposits. Tesla can get away with it. Obviously Lotus thinks they can too. From a company stand point it makes sense. Why tell a customer he is not going to get a car for at least another year....the customer may cancel the order and take their money back. Better to keep them in the dark and hang onto their money. Am I being unfair? I think I am being realistic. I have worked for a large corporation. You do anything you can to hang onto a customers money.

If I drop out it will not be because I don't think the car is amazing. It will be because I refuse to put up with how Lotus is treating me. Most put up with it. Some do not.

I hear you. It's not been a good vehicle launch for Lotus at all. They could certainly do better. At least in the UK they are receiving bad news for the people that placed deposits this year and pushed to 2024.

In North America we are at the mercy of the dealer. over 2-3 year wait for when you placed a deposit in 2021 is certainly a long time. Only thing I can say is, you are most likely being passed over. Again this is a dealer issue, not Lotus HQ. Everyone's situation is different, but I can imagine anyone with a trade-in that presents extra $$ for the dealership will be placed ahead of someone that does not. When it comes to an in-demand car, they are not going to care. If you leave your spot there will be someone on the list that is willing to wait. Unfortunately, that places all the power with the dealer. Not ideal. I am fairly certain NA dealers will be if not already received updated allocations per month for 2023.(at least the first 6 months) This would make sense as to why customers are being notified of extra delays in the UK already. Looks like they have finalized 2023 production and where it will be distributed.

When did your dealer tell say you would not be receiving a car this year? Was this recent?

 

[Carbuilder]

I can imagine anyone with a trade-in that presents extra $$ for the dealership will be placed ahead of someone that does not. ....

When it comes to an in-demand car, they are not going to care. If you leave your spot there will be someone on the list that is willing to wait.

When did your dealer tell say you would not be receiving a car this year? Was this recent?

I was told in March of this year that I will not be getting a car this year. I have not been told officially that I will not be getting a car next year. Just talking with Tony during the test drive lead me to believe I will not get a car next year. He didn't know how many cars were coming in and/or when they are coming in. So basically no cars this year and some cars next year, so my conclusion is that there will not be many cars next year.

I did say I will trade in my BMW i8 Roadster, if that helps.

And you are right. Don't think they really care about a few cancellations since they have more orders than they can fill in the next several years.

Oh, checking my emails I have one from March of this year telling me "A handful may come in by year end and all cars will be 2023 FE cars". Also "You are in the middle for 2023, again FE will be 2023 all of them". "Lotus will continue FE cars". Not sure exactly what all that means, but obviously he was told early this year that the FE cars will continue to be produced for the orders coming in mid-2023. But I was told later that I would not be getting an FE. Cars were expected to be coming in this year (when I was to get mine mid-2023). Since it looks like no cars are coming in this year I'm concluding that my car will not be next year. But who knows.

 

[Hethel Merman]

I completely agree that we need to keep our faith but Lotus do need to up their communications to regain confidence. A couple of youtubers being given access does not make a communication strategy. I mentioned the quality of fitment of the seat belts in a demonstrator in one of the other threads and from the videos I can only surmise that they may have been fitted at a later stage. How is this being done? Are they carrying one of those infamous cardboard boxes we've seen out to the car park along with a few spanners, or are the cars returning to the line so they can be appropriately QC etc? Maybe I'll take a torque wrench on collection day.

Maybe one of the posters on here from the factory floor can explain how they do it?

 

[VL3X]

For those in Canada that have put a deposit down, Lotus has done nothing, zero, nada, not lifted a finger to communicate in any way when we can expect a car.

In North America we are at the mercy of the dealer. over 2-3 year wait for when you placed a deposit in 2021 is certainly a long time. Only thing I can say is, you are most likely being passed over. Again this is a dealer issue, not Lotus HQ.

Sure it's a dealer issue, but Lotus HQ should be in charge right? Lotus should be extremely concerned how their dealers are operating, but it doesn't seem like it's a priority for some reason. I truly believe the GM of my dealer is doing the best he can, but I've seen and heard him frustrated about the lack of communication and guidance from Lotus Corp and Lotus of US. He's the sort of person who only reaches out with 100% verified news from Lotus directly. Otherwise it's silence.

 

[digilotus]

Sure it's a dealer issue, but Lotus HQ should be in charge right? Lotus should be extremely concerned how their dealers are operating, but it doesn't seem like it's a priority for some reason. I truly believe the GM of my dealer is doing the best he can, but I've seen and heard him frustrated about the lack of communication and guidance from Lotus Corp and Lotus of US. He's the sort of person who only reaches out with 100% verified news from Lotus directly. Otherwise it's silence.

At the moment its the other way around. The dealers are concerned about how Lotus HQ is operating!

 

[Nova]

I don't think Lotus has the bandwidth to worry about US or Canada customers. They can and will take advantage of the deniability of working through dealers vs direct. It's not that they don't care, but that they have too many other things on their plate of higher importance.

It is a little upsetting that they can't seem to be able to get cars out the door. I wonder if the workers shown in the Schmee video was just there for the video since it seems that most stations were empty and there was not a lot going on.

Anyway, the one thing holding me back from buying something else is the current car market. If 2023 improves, many people like me may end up buying something else. Maybe Lotus doesn't care, but any new car has a limited "exciting" shelf life. I am not going to clamor to buy a car thats already been on the road for 4 years, for example.

 

[TomE]

Maybe one of the posters on here from the factory floor can explain how they do it?

But only if they post in an unofficial capacity right?

 

[TomE]

It is a little upsetting that they can't seem to be able to get cars out the door. I wonder if the workers shown in the Schmee video was just there for the video since it seems that most stations were empty and there was not a lot going on.

I suspect it was filmed either out of hours or on a Friday afternoon when the line is paused for maintenance. the cones in front of cars and workstations suggest that. Compare the production hall in that video with Harry's video on a working day.