What is coming 16.09.24??

[Lotustoronto]

If this ever made it to production with all that carbon fiber and titanium, it would be at least a million dollars. Can you imagine what the insurance would be? They'd take one look at those doors and think of the cost of repair for a side damage hit. I'm also trying to imagine what it would be like to either get in or out of that car in the pouring rain.

These kinds of "study" concepts with all these special trick features may be fun to look at, but Geely needs to decide what type of customer they can realistically attract, and start thinking of everything they need to be able to pull them in. How about a working mock-up of a customer service location that can be placed everywhere, with all kinds of trick features on how they're going to interact with their customers instead of a million-dollar-plus fantasy concept that only a few rich people would ever even be interested in.

I watched the videos, and this is flashy and all, but I'm also watching the financials and unless Geely intends to use Lotus as a loss-leader of some kind, they need to start thinking (and demonstrating) some sensibility business-wise. This ain't it.

Legit question - Do you think an Emira type 135 EV can sell 5-10K units per year? (Caterham V specs) I think this is the question Lotus is asking themselves after missing massive sales targets on the Eletre SUV. While I agree the doors and other wild parts to the Theory 1 wouldn't make a production spec, but building something to compete with a Mclaren Artura but EV looks like the change of direction happening here. I just can't see Emira ICE sales volumes with a sports car EV - it would need to be something a bit more special and with that the price would go up.

 

[Eagle7]

Legit question - Do you think an Emira type 135 EV can sell 5-10K units per year? (Caterham V specs) I think this is the question Lotus is asking themselves after missing massive sales targets on the Eletre SUV. While I agree the doors and other wild parts to the Theory 1 wouldn't make a production spec, but building something to compete with a Mclaren Artura but EV looks like the change of direction happening here. I just can't see Emira ICE sales volumes with a sports car EV - it would need to be something a bit more special and with that the price would go up.

This is the problem. They're chasing a fantasy without really understanding who their actual customer base is. It looks like they want to compete with Ferrari, Lambo, McLaren, or even dip their toes into Gordon Murray's territory. That's a very particular type of customer, and Lotus hasn't even come close yet to demonstrating they have that kind of customer service presence, which would absolutely be required to be in that segment.

It's nice to aim high, but they need to be more realistic. Anything above $100k, especially right now, is going to eliminate almost their entire customer base. They should be learning that from the Eletre and Emeya. They honestly believed they were going to sell 150,000 in a year, but instead it's been what... less than 3,000? That's not "missing a forecast", that's the Titanic hitting an iceberg.

EV wasn't pushed because they had a fantastically practical and affordable solution. It was based on climate change delusions, and they're now finding out the hard way, that revenue change is far more powerful and real than climate change fears. By trying to abandon ICE technology and force everything to EV, all they've managed to do is throw the baby out with the bath water. Full electric just isn't ready yet to be the dominant technology.

The Type 135 which was designed by Carr's team, could possibly have a chance if they can at least solve the charge time. That seems to be the killer issue, even more than range. People could put up with shorter range if they could charge the car in say 5-8 minutes instead of an hour or more, and there were working charge points at every gas station. Can you imagine what the charge life issue is going to be on a sports car, with people wanting to constantly use the performance which is why you buy a sports car? Then there's the cooling issue. Electric motors and batteries get hot when you continuously push them that hard. For the Type 135 to succeed, at least at the present time, it needs to be hybrid and under $100k.

Watching what Geely is doing, it almost seems like they want a different customer base than their existing one, but their existing customer base is their best chance at survival. We're the enthusiasts, and our enthusiasm can sell vehicles. We're the best brand ambassadors they have, and they need to realize that and produce things within our reach. Going well above $100k isn't it. Maybe they can reach some of that segment later, but that's where the heavy players are. It costs to be up there. They need to be in the $75k-$90k range right now. And even then, insurance is an issue. That alone can stop a customer from being able to afford a car.

I'm not trying to be a downer, I've been a Lotus fan for almost 60 years. I really want Lotus to succeed, and they can if they wake up and realize where their actual market opportunity is.

 

[GrahamClark_60-68]

I'm in heated agreement with @Eagle7. During my time with General Motors, there was a saying that it's the Corvettes that bring the customers into the showroom to buy the Chevettes. Car companies need their flagship bling but stay alive selling cars in volume. Tesla was never going to survive on the Model S alone and Elon knew this. It was the Model 3 that brought them back from the brink. Theory 1 may serve a marketing purpose, but Lotus needs a car they can sell and support in higher volumes.

 

[Lotustoronto]

I'm in heated agreement with @Eagle7. During my time with General Motors, there was a saying that it's the Corvettes that bring the customers into the showroom to buy the Chevettes. Car companies need their flagship bling but stay alive selling cars in volume. Tesla was never going to survive on the Model S alone and Elon knew this. It was the Model 3 that brought them back from the brink. Theory 1 may serve a marketing purpose, but Lotus needs a car they can sell and support in higher volumes.

Porsche 911 exists to sell Macan's and Cayenne's - Your assessment is 100% correct.

 

[seriously]

I'm in heated agreement with @Eagle7. During my time with General Motors, there was a saying that it's the Corvettes that bring the customers into the showroom to buy the Chevettes. Car companies need their flagship bling but stay alive selling cars in volume. Tesla was never going to survive on the Model S alone and Elon knew this. It was the Model 3 that brought them back from the brink. Theory 1 may serve a marketing purpose, but Lotus needs a car they can sell and support in higher volumes.

This is the halo car strategy. Create an aspirational product to generate interest, but also to anchor consumers on a higher price point so that lower priced alternatives appear to be a better value.

Thing is, they already had this with the Evija and Emira. Many $2M features trickled down into the $100k car. The Theory 1 is kind of a redux or the Geely version of the Lotus Halo project car.

 

[Lotustoronto]

This is the halo car strategy. Create an aspirational product to generate interest, but also to anchor consumers on a higher price point so that lower priced alternatives appear to be a better value.

Thing is, they already had this with the Evija and Emira. Many $2M features trickled down into the $100k car. The Theory 1 is kind of a redux or the Geely version of the Lotus Halo project car.

To be honest the Evija has been flogged around since 2019... that's almost 6 years ago. Only so many times you can run that car up the hill at goodwood every year. It's certainly been time to move forward from it IMO.

 

[scc.131.fe]

This is the problem. They're chasing a fantasy without really understanding who their actual customer base is. It looks like they want to compete with Ferrari, Lambo, McLaren, or even dip their toes into Gordon Murray's territory. That's a very particular type of customer, and Lotus hasn't even come close yet to demonstrating they have that kind of customer service presence, which would absolutely be required to be in that segment.

It's nice to aim high, but they need to be more realistic. Anything above $100k, especially right now, is going to eliminate almost their entire customer base. They should be learning that from the Eletre and Emeya. They honestly believed they were going to sell 150,000 in a year, but instead it's been what... less than 3,000? That's not "missing a forecast", that's the Titanic hitting an iceberg.

EV wasn't pushed because they had a fantastically practical and affordable solution. It was based on climate change delusions, and they're now finding out the hard way, that revenue change is far more powerful and real than climate change fears. By trying to abandon ICE technology and force everything to EV, all they've managed to do is throw the baby out with the bath water. Full electric just isn't ready yet to be the dominant technology.

The Type 135 which was designed by Carr's team, could possibly have a chance if they can at least solve the charge time. That seems to be the killer issue, even more than range. People could put up with shorter range if they could charge the car in say 5-8 minutes instead of an hour or more, and there were working charge points at every gas station. Can you imagine what the charge life issue is going to be on a sports car, with people wanting to constantly use the performance which is why you buy a sports car? Then there's the cooling issue. Electric motors and batteries get hot when you continuously push them that hard. For the Type 135 to succeed, at least at the present time, it needs to be hybrid and under $100k.

Watching what Geely is doing, it almost seems like they want a different customer base than their existing one, but their existing customer base is their best chance at survival. We're the enthusiasts, and our enthusiasm can sell vehicles. We're the best brand ambassadors they have, and they need to realize that and produce things within our reach. Going well above $100k isn't it. Maybe they can reach some of that segment later, but that's where the heavy players are. It costs to be up there. They need to be in the $75k-$90k range right now. And even then, insurance is an issue. That alone can stop a customer from being able to afford a car.

I'm not trying to be a downer, I've been a Lotus fan for almost 60 years. I really want Lotus to succeed, and they can if they wake up and realize where their actual market opportunity is.

I would gladly buy Carr's team a round anyday. Those two guys in the Theory 1 Top Gear vid, mmmm, not so much. They feel "inserted" into Lotus.

 

[GrahamClark_60-68]

Porsche 911 exists to sell Macan's and Cayenne's - Your assessment is 100% correct.

Ferrari SF90 Stradale, La Ferrari, and before those the Enzo to sell "lesser" Ferraris. The list goes on. I'm just concerned about the dollars Lotus must have spent on Theory 1 at a time where the dollars could have been better allocated. Of course they did have partners with deep pockets who likely contributed to the investment (Nvidia's name on the side of the car, haha).

 

[GrahamClark_60-68]

Only so many times you can run that car up the hill at goodwood

or into a haybale. Sorry, couldn't resist.....