Bad News for China Sales??

[wallstbear]

I've returned to this several times thinking about it. As a marketing stunt, it's so grossly and patently offensive that it actually has me reconsidering whether I want to follow through with the Emira transaction. How utterly disgusting. 😡

Do you have any more information about this, @wallstbear ?

They canvelled that dating event fairly quickly I believe.

Let me put it this way, Geely is the one Chinese auto maker that is most dedicated to chassis, handling and pure driving quality as opposed to others who focuse on space, screens, and gimmicks. Their big boss is one of us, I think.

That's why they own volvo, and i have a Lynk & Co 09 which is essentially a knockoff XC90. So i'm going to put it in context that Lotus coming back from bankruptcy is pulling some marketing stunts to build a luxury image. I also suspect the current Lotus CEO who is behind all this may lose her job before the end of 2025.

 

[Nova]

They canvelled that dating event fairly quickly I believe.

Let me put it this way, Geely is the one Chinese auto maker that is most dedicated to chassis, handling and pure driving quality as opposed to others who focuse on space, screens, and gimmicks. Their big boss is one of us, I think.

That's why they own volvo, and i have a Lynk & Co 09 which is essentially a knockoff XC90. So i'm going to put it in context that Lotus coming back from bankruptcy is pulling some marketing stunts to build a luxury image. I also suspect the current Lotus CEO who is behind all this may lose her job before the end of 2025.

Interesting, so Geely is like the BMW and Honda of the old days?

 

[wallstbear]

Interesting, so Geely is like the BMW and Honda of the old days?

Loosely, yeah. The status of the Zeekr 001 (under Geely) in China reminds me very much of the original Infiniti G35 or the E46 M3.

 

[Fasttoys]

It goes like this, Tesla number 1 EV maker, and then China, & 10 years from now some USA car manufacturers will be out of business. The US government better embrace Tesla and put politics aside because BYD just passed Tesla. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/03/cars/china-byd-explainer-tesla-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Nova]

It goes like this, Tesla number 1 EV maker and then China, & 10 years from now some USA car manufacturers will be out of business. USA government better embrace Tesla put politics aside because BYD just passed Tesla. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/03/cars/china-byd-explainer-tesla-intl-hnk/index.html

It's not really a fair comparison yet because of the huge price difference between Tesla and BYD vehicles, but I understand the importance of unit volume.

I don't believe any of the current 3 large US car manufacturers will be out of business because our government will support them, may be not to the degree that China supports BYD, but some support will be given. Remember that there is a 25% tariff that the US has on Chinese car imports - they can further apply anti-dumping rules to protect the domestic market.

Cheap Chinese cars will be timely opium for those smaller under developed markets that are not well served by domestic producers. I keep waiting for India to wake up and do something with its immense capabilities, but there seem to be some intrinsic aspect about the culture in India that is preventing the country's industrialization.

 

[Fasttoys]

It's not really a fair comparison yet because of the huge price difference between Tesla and BYD vehicles, but I understand the importance of unit volume.

I don't believe any of the current 3 large US car manufacturers will be out of business because our government will support them, may be not to the degree that China supports BYD, but some support will be given. Remember that there is a 25% tariff that the US has on Chinese car imports - they can further apply anti-dumping rules to protect the domestic market.

Cheap Chinese cars will be timely opium for those smaller under developed markets that are not well served by domestic producers. I keep waiting for India to wake up and do something with its immense capabilities, but there seem to be some intrinsic aspect about the culture in India that is preventing the country's industrialization.

I agree with the bail-outs but what will likely happen is consolidation with other manufacturers. Apple bailed out making EVs but has enough cash flow if they want to buy any of them (Rivian). You just have a lot fewer moving parts on an EV, compared to an ICE vehicle. Even though I love and own an EV I still think we are trading one resource for another & the more that move over to EV's the more Juice will cost. You need fewer people on the assembly line to make an EV, I know Unions/People are a big expense to these car manufacturers. We also have AI coming and that will be more integrated into our lives than we know. The future will be interesting that is for sure.

 

[brainf18]

All of these discussions are missing the underlying forcing function for EV adaptation and long term macro economic viability. CONSUMER DEMAND. Irrespective of global markets, trends in the USA have not been favorable for EVs. Tesla was first to market and filled what demand was there. As mass market automakers are playing catchup and launching EV products, they've quickly come to realize the US consumer market appetite for EVs is limited. As a result EV depreciation has been astronomical. Anyone interested in an EV is then drawn away from purchasing new and many will opt for a used alternative because the discounts are so hard to resist. This creates a depreciation cycle that effects automakers ability to move inventory and generate revenue.

Bottom line is for USA markets, at this time, consumer demand for EV's only makes up slightly less than 10% of all new car sales. An "EV Only" business model is not a sustainable in the USA, esp considering Tesla continues to take the lions share of that small slice of the American EV market.

Ford, GM Rivian etc have all gotten out over their "demand" skis and have had to pull back to minimize EV losses. Any new entrants to this limited market will only further dilute the already over crowed EV marketplace.

 

[Fasttoys]

All of these discussions are missing the underlying forcing function for EV adaptation and long term macro economic viability. CONSUMER DEMAND. Irrespective of global markets, trends in the USA have not been favorable for EVs. Tesla was first to market and filled what demand what there. As mass market automakers are playing catchup and launching EV products, they've quickly come to realize the US consumer market appetite for EVs is limited. As a result EV depreciation has been astronomical. Anyone interested in an EV is then drawn away from purchasing new and many will opt for a used alternative because the discounts are so hard to resist. This creates a depreciation cycle that effects automakers ability to move inventory and generate revenue.

Bottom line is for USA markets, at this time, consumer demand for EV's only makes up slightly less than 10% of all new car sales. An "EV Only" business model is not a sustainable in the USA, esp considering Tesla continues to take the lions share of that small slice of the American EV market.

Ford, GM Rivian etc have all gotten out over their "demand" skis and have had to pull back to minimize EV losses. Any new entrants to this limited market will only further dilute the already over crowed EV marketplace.

Great points but our Governments all over the world including ours, is forcing it down our throats, similar to the jab during Covid. They are making it very difficult for manufactures and will continue to tighten the screws. It’s the future no matter how much we want to fight it, it’s happening. I Jumped in by mistake and truly think it’s better for a daily driver than my BMW X3M and got over my rang anxiety after six months of ownership. I hate being controlled so I was huh let me try this out before they force it on me. EV’s are a lease vehicle for me, get tax credits asap and give it back after a few years.

 

[Nova]

Yea, I thought the entire market dynamic for EVs was a bit comical. I thought it was perfectly clear that Tesla's strategy of marketing high priced EVs to early adopters was simply a way to kick start the market. Subsequent broad adoption by middle class consumers would require low price and a robust charging solution. It seemed that the EV efforts by various automakers just projected their own success on top of the high prices charged by Tesla while completely ignoring the charging problem. Tesla is the *ONLY* company with a charging solution and even that is not enough for broad market mass appeal.

Elon knows that this is the barrier to be broken, which is why he is putting price pressures on the entire market while at the same time accepting other brands into the Tesla charging network. These actions are sending all of the other brands back to the drawing board to reimagine what their EV offering would be. For EV to be generally successful, it needs to be *as cheap or cheaper* than a similarly sized/equipped gasoline car. I'm not sure what the range equation needs to be, but my gut feeling tells me that daily usable range of 200 miles would assuage a lot of concerns in this regard.

 

[Eagle7]

The whole EV push is a classic example of allowing emotion to overwhelm logic and common sense. The government mandates are going to get pushed back, because the marketplace has already pretty much spoken. The most sensible solution would be to go hybrid. That gives you the best of both worlds without hamstringing either one. We'll see if that happens.

The biggest problem however is the parasitical class known as politicians simply cannot stand to have their hands pulled out of our pockets, even if it's only slightly and for a good cause like 'saving the planet'. The more people switch to EV or hybrids, the less gas tax revenue from the gas pumps. This cannot be tolerated! New schemes must be devised to remedy this. The idea that people are going to 'save money' by switching is only an illusion, or delusion as it were. You're going to pay, one way or the other. Some way somehow, they're going to raise taxes somewhere, to make up for the fact that they're not getting as much out of your pocket as they were before you believed them and started trying to save the planet.

(BTW, this was never about saving the planet or climate change. It's about shifting the balance of power away from middle-east oil and the oil companies, and moving it to China who controls about 70% of the world's critical mining interests for producing batteries.)

Whenever governments want to push something onto you, they will always say it's for your own good, or some kind of noble cause that they know people won't be against, but that's only a smokescreen. The real reason is and has always been, about two things and two things only; money and power. If you ever want to figure out what's going on about something, look for the money. That'll tell you the story right there.

 

[FlyNavy01]

I decided to put my money where my mouth was in regards to EV's 6-7 years ago and it made me a decent sum of money for someone my age. I won't delve into details because the topic is contentious and potentially political, but I would simply encourage people to research on their own and try not to fall for the headlines from the lobbyists and luddites. EV sales are still increasing year over year. The 31% growth in 2023 was less than 60% growth in 2022, but still growth nonetheless. No demand would mean less than 0% growth in YoY sales. The S curve is simply beginning to flatten out. If you've been paying attention, lowering EV prices to be on par (or even less than) ICE competitors was always part of the plan. High depreciation will always happen to early adopters of a new technology as it matures.

At the end of the day, I'm just glad we live in a time where consumers have a choice. I'm grateful there are manual transmission analog sports cars that can still be bought new and enjoyed before everything becomes increasingly digital and autonomous. Life is a buffet, and I've been enjoying the best of both worlds in regards to EV and ICE.

 

[Speedy Emira]

Do you think Tesla will get any money to keep going if the big 3 get subsidies. Not sure if it was internet bs but I read Biden didn’t like Elon Musk and was saying GM were the premier EV company in the US.

 

[Fasttoys]

Do you think Tesla will get any money to keep going if the big 3 get subsidies. Not sure if it was internet bs but I read Biden didn’t like Elon Musk and was saying GM were the premier EV company in the US.

That is true and they invented GM and other CEO’s to the White House to talk about climate change and EV. You leave out Elon lol idiots!

Tesla Not Invited To White House Event On EVs, US Manufacturing

Tesla was not invited at the White House signing of the order targeting 50% EV sales by 2030, although GM, Ford, Stellantis, and UAW representatives were.

insideevs.com

 

[Fasttoys]

just out:; Biden admin finalizes environmental regulations targeting clothes washers, dryers. EV’s are hear to stay and maybe in 10 years it will be against the law to drive your Emira on the road

 

[wallstbear]

just out:; Biden admin finalizes environmental regulations targeting clothes washers, dryers. EV’s are hear to stay and maybe in 10 years it will be against the law to drive your Emira on the road

I am sure existing cars will be "grandfathered" by grandpa.

 

[Speedy Emira]

just out:; Biden admin finalizes environmental regulations targeting clothes washers, dryers. EV’s are hear to stay and maybe in 10 years it will be against the law to drive your Emira on the road

In the UK we have another 11 years before the only ICE vehicles that can be sold new will be hybrids and that’s only for 5 years after I read. In essence if you bought a decent ice hibrid even in 11 years and it lasted 10 years being a families main car I’m sure the landscape will have changed again.
If they stopped owners driving ice cars on the road in the UK that were legally owned it would be suicide for a political parties so won’t happen. It’s as mad as giving illegal immigrants in hiding the vote to help get reelected. 😁

 

[Nick in Sydney]

and maybe in 10 years it will be against the law to drive your Emira on the road

Give me a break. They will still be selling ICE cars in the USA for the next 5-10 years. Can you imagine if they then told people they couldn't drive their almost new cars. Never going to happen.

 

[lynchy73]

I can see restrictions for ICE cars in major cities becoming typical. I can see additional taxes on Fuel/road tax etc, making it more expensive than it currently is to run an ICE car.

I don’t see a general ban on ICE (driving, not buying new) in the next 20/30 years at least and likely much longer in most countries.

 

[Fasttoys]

Give me a break. They will still be selling ICE cars in the USA for the next 5-10 years. Can you imagine if they then told people they couldn't drive their almost new cars. Never going to happen.

LOL, I was making a joke, but the below is about 10 years out and it's going to happen & Lotus is going 100% EV in less than 5 years, yes LOTUS. Let's be honest Governments are getting very aggressive with EPA regulations. If you told me in 2010 that the USA would make people be forced to take a shot to keep their job, or that Lotus would be going 100% EV, I would have said your NUTS? The Toyota V6 is a dirty motor based on 2024 standards which is why Toyota has scrapped for other resources. The Emira will end production by the end of 2025 & Lotus who will be making SUVs,s is going 100% EV.

The UK government has decided to delay the introduction of the ban on the sale of new petrol- and diesel-engined cars from 2030 to 2035. Originally, the ban was set to come into force in 2030, with certain hybrid powertrains allowed until 2035. However, this date has been pushed back to allow all cars to be sold until 2035. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak emphasized that the UK is still committed to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Climate change/clean energy is a Religious cult-like movement with a high level of power behind it. Give me a break!!! Wake up it's going to happen, just like manuals are dead & a majority of sports cars with NA motors are done & not being produced other than Porsche and Corvette.

 

[Speedy Emira]

I

Give me a break. They will still be selling ICE cars in the USA for the next 5-10 years. Can you imagine if they then told people they couldn't drive their almost new cars. Never going to happen.

can you imagine one of the parties in the YS saying they are going to scrap a future ban on ICE sales until 2050. They would get tons of votes for that on its own. I’d vote for anyone that would mean a V8 Emira could be launched. 😂