Interesting Article on the Cost of the Electric Future

[Eagle7]

There's also the issue of who controls the areas where those resources are found. China has been acquiring key resource areas for years, especially in Africa. That would become the next battleground resource just like oil has been for the last 100 years.

As corny as it may sound, I've been an advocate of steam technology for years. With the new non-corrosive materials we have nowadays, and the advances of computer aided design, steam engine technology could be used to aid in powering industrial vehicles, and things like ships, long distant transport, etc. With water being an abundant resource, and steam being environmentally friendly, it would go a long way towards providing a clean source of energy in a lot of areas.

 

[dgrace]

Uhh... how do you heat the water to produce the steam?

 

[Pegasi]

I can’t find the article now, but I work in energy and commodities and there was an analysis recently of the mineral extraction requirements for EVs.

Assuming almost all new cars will require battery power in 10 years time, we need to dig up more stuff in the next 10 years than in the last 100.

The implications on land use, mining and processing globally (and the dangers of environmental impact) are enormous. Oil and gas extraction is far from benign, but EVs aren’t low impact.

I just don't understand why they can't make room for ICE cars for the few who want them. Especially since used ICE cars will be on the road for the foreseeable future. If EV isn't a slam dunk, I don't understand this direction. It seems like they are telling us that we want them and they aren't really explaining the entire life cycle of an EV as compared to an ICE. This is just an idle rant on my part.

 

[HoweBank]

I'm not convinced on the whole climate debate sorry. I do believe in efficiency though and if there is a better solution then I'm all for it. regardless of the climate debate I'm side stepping here I can see that densely populated areas can improve if less exhaust gas were present.

Electric cars appear a ridiculous answer to me right now but maybe the judgement is too soon and the development will improve. Seems to me they only exist through propaganda media political bias and also burning more fossil fuels. The familiar debate used regarding true manufacture footprint of the raw materials in the ground to a finished car on the drive plugging into a charge point.

Here in the UK we are on the knife edge of switching major generating stations off through old age with no base load quick replacement or a grid to distribute yet government expects all electric in 7.5 years. INCREDIBLE!

Meanwhile the economic bubble is ready to burst. people can’t afford to heat/eat if the news propaganda is right so buying an electric expensive car seems a far fetch for many you would assume.

Taxation burden grows so committing to an all-electric future is very bold.

 

[NicolasB]

I'm not convinced on the whole climate debate sorry. I do believe in efficiency though and if there is a better solution then I'm all for it. regardless of the climate debate I'm side stepping here I can see that densely populated areas can improve if less exhaust gas were present.

Electric cars appear a ridiculous answer to me right now but maybe the judgement is too soon and the development will improve. Seems to me they only exist through propaganda media political bias and also burning more fossil fuels. The familiar debate used regarding true manufacture footprint of the raw materials in the ground to a finished car on the drive plugging into a charge point.

Here in the UK we are on the knife edge of switching major generating stations off through old age with no base load quick replacement or a grid to distribute yet government expects all electric in 7.5 years. INCREDIBLE!

Meanwhile the economic bubble is ready to burst. people can’t afford to heat/eat if the news propaganda is right so buying an electric expensive car seems a far fetch for many you would assume.

Taxation burden grows so committing to an all-electric future is very bold.

Translation: we're fucked.

It's almost 90° F here in northern NY, which is sometimes an event that happens July. It's getting hot, and fast.

 

[HoweBank]

Translation: we're fucked.

It's almost 90° F here in northern NY, which is sometimes an event that happens July. It's getting hot, and fast.

I hope not but governments are only interested in getting re-elected not long term planning for the greater good.

fossil fuels are a depleting resource so a good alternative needs finding for that alone. Oils are needed so so much more than cars.

 

[~el~jefe~]

There are two questions I have to ask after reading this:

1. Do you all know that hydrogen cars are also electric cars with electric motors and a lithium ion battery? The battery is just way smaller than in a pure EV, because you can generate your own electricity with the hydrogen.

2. Do you all know that you need electricity to generate hydrogen in the first place and that it is about three times more efficient to use this energy directly to drive an electric car, because you don‘t have to go the route of converting from electricity to hydrogen to electricity?

The one big problem is storing the electricity. Hydrogen is just another way to store it, however one with at least as many downsides as lithium ion batteries.

do you know you have no idea how hydrogen can be made and how a fuel-cell car can be LIGHTER than gasoline powered? vs +1000-2000lbs heavier with a lithium ion battery? no? right.

fuel cell = only acceptable form of electrification for a sports car
1970's lithium-ion battery "technology" = push from China

 

[Eagle7]

Uhh... how do you heat the water to produce the steam?

There are many different ways, but it can be done with very small electric or even gas engines. This would greatly reduce the need for the size and amount of energy necessary to get the steam process going. Once the engine is going, it can help generate electricity to power the small electric motor.

The downside of steam in the past was efficiency, corrosion and maintenance. New materials and technology are vastly superior to what was available in the past. If a large part of the commercial/industrial transportation system can be powered by steam, that will help reduce the amount of resources needed to power them. Steam vapor is also non-toxic and environmentally friendly. Eventually advancements would make their way down to the personal transportation level, but the idea here is to do things gradually, intelligently, rather than by ideologue agenda-based political mandate.

We need to look at alternate sources of energy, and I'm not convinced electric is the best way to go. It's costly in a lot of ways and not particularly environmentally friendly. There's also the side-effect of exposure to EMF, which can cause all kinds of health issues. I was reading an article awhile ago by a guy who had a Tesla, and he was showing it to his friend. His friend happened to be an electrician and had his gear with him which included an EMF meter. He was stunned when he saw his meter go off the scale for EMF, and it was sitting right next to the center tunnel of the car. He said continuous exposure to that much EMF was dangerous. Exposure to high levels of EMF is known to cause cancer and other medical issues, including headaches and hallucinations. Has anybody in the electric vehicle industry thought to check for EMF levels in vehicles?

As is so often the case with idealists who live in the fantasy world of their own delusional grandeur, there are almost always real-world consequences they never think of or plan for. If they had properly wanted to start switching everything over to electricity, they would have been putting the infrastructure in place first, which would include generating electricity, before forcing through legislation a complete change in manufacturing and transportation.

There's going to be consequences to all of this, and by the time those start to become readily apparent, it will be too late to be cautious and choose a wiser course. I fear the true costs of all this is going to be greater than we can probably even guess, and it won't be in our favor.

 

[dgrace]

...If a large part of the commercial/industrial transportation system can be powered by steam...

Dude. I love your enthusiasm, but NOTHING is powered by steam. Steam is a way to convert thermal energy generated by some other fuel (e.g. burning coal, wood, nuclear fission) into mechanical energy. Water is not a fuel!

The hydrogen in water, if you can split it from the oxygen, can be burned to produce energy, but the process of splitting the hydrogen from the oxygen consumes more energy than you get by burning the hydrogen afterwards.

 

[Eagle7]

Dude. I love your enthusiasm, but NOTHING is powered by steam. Steam is a way to convert thermal energy generated by some other fuel (e.g. burning coal, wood, nuclear fission) into mechanical energy. Water is not a fuel!

The hydrogen in water, if you can split it from the oxygen, can be burned to produce energy, but the process of splitting the hydrogen from the oxygen consumes more energy than you get by burning the hydrogen afterwards.

Oh there's a lot of things. Here's the first thing that came up when I did a search:

Steam Power: Still Moving Us, Even in the 21st Century

It's in our power plants, underneath New York City and in our buffets. In our modern world, steam is still very much relevant.

www.discovermagazine.com

and there are a LOT of other modern articles.

You seem to be misunderstanding what I've been saying. I didn't say water was a fuel; I said it can be heated by electric or gas power, and those heating methods would be in much smaller sizes and require much less gas and/or batteries to operate than using those things exclusively for power in transportation the way we do now. This would greatly reduce the need for the massive amounts of those resources that we're currently using, and will use in the future unless we do something different.

 

[pec]

Well considering Lotus is going all electric and either that includes the Emira at some point, or the sports car replacing it (Type 135?) will be electric, I thought it was relevant. If governments are waiting to start adding extra fees and taxes to electric vehicles, that will have an impact on electric vehicle sales which would impact Lotus. This is coming regardless of the Emira.

There's also the comment by Ford's EV CEO, RJ Scaringe: "Put very simply, all the world's [battery] cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years." That's critical. In the last 12 months the cost of lithium which is used in EV batteries has increased by 470%. That will be passed onto the price of the vehicles, and have an impact on existing owners when it comes time to replace their batteries.

What this indicates to me is, there may be a change of course in the next 10 years as it becomes apparent that laws forcing everything to go all-electric may not only be impossible to accommodate, but have a very negative economic effect. Unless they find new sources for some of these critical elements (which involves mining, a notoriously non-green activity) or come up with better battery technology, I'm guessing fossil fuels may be around a lot longer than some people currently think.

or maybe economies of scale and a more rapidly declining cost of e-fuels, like that which Porsche and Exxon are investing in, which take H from water and Carbon from the air processed with nuclear or renewable energy, will save the ICE afterall.

 

[dgrace]

Oh there's a lot of things. Here's the first thing that came up when I did a search:

Steam Power: Still Moving Us, Even in the 21st Century

It's in our power plants, underneath New York City and in our buffets. In our modern world, steam is still very much relevant.

www.discovermagazine.com

and there are a LOT of other modern articles.

You seem to be misunderstanding what I've been saying. I didn't say water was a fuel; I said it can be heated by electric or gas power, and those heating methods would be in much smaller sizes and require much less gas and/or batteries to operate than using those things exclusively for power in transportation the way we do now. This would greatly reduce the need for the massive amounts of those resources that we're currently using, and will use in the future unless we do something different.

I don't see how you could gain efficiency by converting electricity to thermal, then to steam, then to mechanical energy. We have very efficient motors that go direct from electricity to mechanical. (c.f. Tesla 9-sec 1/4 mile cars)

 

[~el~jefe~]

I don't see how you could gain efficiency by converting electricity to thermal, then to steam, then to mechanical energy. We have very efficient motors that go direct from electricity to mechanical. (c.f. Tesla 9-sec 1/4 mile cars)

the efficiency is in the perfect torque you get. steam does not compress, does not give a f***
They have made models of 100+ mpg cars that use steam, but never are adopted. A whole world of innovation could happen with it, as well as be super fun to know you are driving a steam driven car great marketing

 

[FlyNavy01]

Lots of armchair experts in this thread making themselves look silly.

There's no easy answer to slow humanities dependency on hydrocarbons, or obviously it would've been solved already. This is one of the toughest problems we currently face, and people 10x smarter than all of us have been working on it relentlessly for a long time. Right now it's clear EV's have a massive lead and are gaining momentum very fast, so it's unlikely anything will outpace it unless an incredible breakthrough technology comes about.

There's never going to be a perfect solution. No one is saying there won't be compromises, but if you actually do some quality research, you'll find EV's are still much better than any ICE car for the environment over their usable lifecycle. Yes this includes mining, emissions, resources, manufacturing, and materials. And they're only getting better as we find more efficient ways to produce and use them.

 

[Eagle7]

I don't see how you could gain efficiency by converting electricity to thermal, then to steam, then to mechanical energy. We have very efficient motors that go direct from electricity to mechanical. (c.f. Tesla 9-sec 1/4 mile cars)

You're missing the point. Look at the amount of what it takes to power those "very efficient" motors. It isn't the motors that's the issue, it's the amount of batteries it takes to power them. If we can develop a process using water and steam, that requires say 80% less battery power, per vehicle, that's a significant reduction in the drain on the resources for batteries. If we only have 10% of what we're going to need in 10 years just to meet the START of an all-electric future, how are we going to sustain it?

This all-electric utopian dream for the future simply doesn't make sense at this time. We need to not put all our eggs in one basket. We need to diversify the methodologies we're using for different things; i.e. mass transit vs personal transit, industrial/commercial transit versus people transit.

There needs to be a more balanced approach to all of this. We can mix electric power, and gas power, and steam power, maybe even hydrogen power, and in the meantime keep working on developing better and less resource hungry alternatives.

 

[Eagle7]

Lots of armchair experts in this thread making themselves look silly.

There's no easy answer to slow humanities dependency on hydrocarbons, or obviously it would've been solved already. This is one of the toughest problems we currently face, and people 10x smarter than all of us have been working on it relentlessly for a long time. Right now it's clear EV's have a massive lead and are gaining momentum very fast, so it's unlikely anything will outpace it unless an incredible breakthrough technology comes about.

There's never going to be a perfect solution. No one is saying there won't be compromises, but if you actually do some quality research, you'll find EV's are still much better than any ICE car for the environment over their usable lifecycle. Yes this includes mining, emissions, resources, manufacturing, and materials. And they're only getting better as we find more efficient ways to produce and use them.

You're not taking into account politics; both governmental and especially industrial. There are many things that could have been solved/improved up to 100 years ago, but special interests both in government and industry made sure it didn't happen, and it's always the same two issues; money and power. That's still going on, and not going away anytime soon, if ever.

 

[FlyNavy01]

You're not taking into account politics; both governmental and especially industrial. There are many things that could have been solved/improved up to 100 years ago, but special interests both in government and industry made sure it didn't happen, and it's always the same two issues; money and power. That's still going on, and not going away anytime soon, if ever.

I agree, it's a shame, but just the way things are with how our society operates. Extremely inefficient. Especially government!

There's more I could say, however I don't feel the need to further add to this discussion as everyone has a differing opinion and only time till well what the true answer is.

 

[dgrace]

You're missing the point. Look at the amount of what it takes to power those "very efficient" motors. It isn't the motors that's the issue, it's the amount of batteries it takes to power them. If we can develop a process using water and steam, that requires say 80% less battery power, per vehicle, that's a significant reduction in the drain on the resources for batteries. If we only have 10% of what we're going to need in 10 years just to meet the START of an all-electric future, how are we going to sustain it?

This all-electric utopian dream for the future simply doesn't make sense at this time. We need to not put all our eggs in one basket. We need to diversify the methodologies we're using for different things; i.e. mass transit vs personal transit, industrial/commercial transit versus people transit.

There needs to be a more balanced approach to all of this. We can mix electric power, and gas power, and steam power, maybe even hydrogen power, and in the meantime keep working on developing better and less resource hungry alternatives.

Again, steam is not a fuel source. It's a transmission method. If you replace 80% of your batteries with a bunch of hot water, you are not magically going to be able to move the same mass at the same speed for the same distance. Electric, gas, hydrogen, steam: one of these is not like the others. Water doesn't boil at room temperature! (at least not at standard pressures)

 

[TomE]

I just don't understand why they can't make room for ICE cars for the few who want them. Especially since used ICE cars will be on the road for the foreseeable future. If EV isn't a slam dunk, I don't understand this direction. It seems like they are telling us that we want them and they aren't really explaining the entire life cycle of an EV as compared to an ICE. This is just an idle rant on my part.

@TXEMIRA and I have a plan for this. He’s going to buy a load of cheap land in Texas so we can build private roads and a race track. I’m buying oil futures contracts so we have a guaranteed supply of fuel for the next 50 years. If we can acquire some land with an oil field then even better.

You’ll be able to leave your ICE car in our storage facility and fly in for weekend driving events. As it’ll all be on private land there will be no government regulation-driven constraints or vehicle emissions taxes.

This kind of thing already exists at circuits like Ascari.

We’re just drawing up our crowd-funding proposal…

 

[Bilbao-Emira]

@TXEMIRA and I have a plan for this. He’s going to buy a load of cheap land in Texas so we can build private roads and a race track. I’m buying oil futures contracts so we have a guaranteed supply of fuel for the next 50 years. If we can acquire some land with an oil field then even better.

You’ll be able to leave your ICE car in our storage facility and fly in for weekend driving events. As it’ll all be on private land there will be no government regulation-driven constraints or vehicle emissions taxes.

This kind of thing already exists at circuits like Ascari.

We’re just drawing up

I´ll chip in with some Jamón ibérico for the break!!

Perfect sustainable pigs from the a-corns. ok, we´ll bring the acorns too.