JayEmms latest speculation

[Weyland]

My car, ordered earlier this year with an ETA of spring/summer next year (I'm fine with that BTW) has now moved to expected 2023, which to me says 2024.

Can't get my head around how they can still be delivering 1st editions then!!!

 

[Eagle7]

I'd say 2500 worldwide is pretty limited.
10,000 is still a lot

Considering the size of the world car market? I don't think 10,000 is a lot at all.

 

[GetawayDriving]

I'd say 2500 worldwide is pretty limited.
10,000 is still a lot

Just adding context, Porsche sold 28,242 718 Caymans in the US alone between 2016 and 2022 (not counting 2022).

 

[GetawayDriving]

Tesla specifically do this to keep costs down and profits up. They have a handful of centres to deal with battery and other issues but push as much work as possible to mobile. Different concept, they started this from the off and is also the reason they don't have showrooms.

Seems like the same concept to me. Lotus is small and growing, and will also want to keep costs down and profits up. They already have "dealers" in enough places to emulate Tesla's regional centers, they just need to add the mobile components.

US regulations allow EV-only automakers to sell direct, so it's in Lotus' benefit to kill off the Emira stateside if they want to chase a direct sales model. Not sure what their plans are there, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds. It's very difficult (and expensive) to spin up a massive network of dealers to rival the likes of Porsche, and then to maintain a quality control over them.

 

[Eagle7]

Just adding context, Porsche sold 28,242 718 Caymans in the US alone between 2016 and 2022 (not counting 2022).

Right. And Lotus is only shipping about 500 V6 FE's to the U.S. for the 1st production year, and increasing their dealer allocation for the 2nd production year to 1,900 cars to the U.S. That's 2,400 cars and that closes out production years 1 and 2. Production year 3, model year 2025 is where they should really be able to start cranking out production (for Lotus anyways) providing they can get enough of all the parts they need.

 

[Lotustoronto]

Right. And Lotus is only shipping about 500 V6 FE's to the U.S. for the 1st production year, and increasing their dealer allocation for the 2nd production year to 1,900 cars to the U.S. That's 2,400 cars and that closes out production years 1 and 2. Production year 3, model year 2025 is where they should really be able to start cranking out production (for Lotus anyways) providing they can get enough of all the parts they need.

I thought it was 700 FE V6 for 2023 year (model year '24), and total 1,900 for that year (inclusive of FE and Base V6 / some i4). After that would be '24 and '25 still with V6. Assuming same amount or slightly more at 2K Emira's heading stateside. Brings total potential V6 Emira's around 4,500-6,500. 1,000-2,500 for i4's in the same time period.

Just to be clear they will have a solid 3.5 years of production run for the V6.

I don't think we will see more than 5-6K manual v6 Emira's in N/A market total. Which would make it a pretty rare car. About as rare as a 718 Cayman GT4, to put in perspective. Perhaps a little less but not by much.

 

[Leonard]

Considering the size of the world car market? I don't think 10,000 is a lot at all.

It is tho in regards to residuals

 

[Eagle7]

I thought it was 700 FE V6 for 2023 year (model year '24), and total 1,900 for that year (inclusive of FE and Base V6 / some i4). After that would be '24 and '25 still with V6. Assuming same amount or slightly more at 2K Emira's heading stateside. Brings total potential V6 Emira's around 4,500-6,500. 1,000-2,500 for i4's in the same time period.

Just to be clear they will have a solid 3.5 years of production run for the V6.

I don't think we will see more than 5-6K manual v6 Emira's in N/A market total. Which would make it a pretty rare car. About as rare as a 718 Cayman GT4, to put in perspective. Perhaps a little less but not by much.

700 V6 FE for North America, about 500 of those for the U.S. with the rest going to Canada.

Matt said at the Emira debut in 2021 that they would only be able to use the V6 for 5 years, which puts it to 2026. Model year 2026 is produced beginning in calendar year 2025; 2 years from the start of U.S. production in January 2023.

From what we've been told, the 'first' year production run which is all V6 FE's only, will end in March of 2023 as the last of the V6 FE's are built for North America. All of those are model year 2024 cars. The 'second' year production begins immediately after that, and it includes base V6 and i4 models. Those will also be model year 2024 cars. As I understood it, the allocations for the U.S. for the second production year would be increased to 1,900 and that includes V6 base models as well as i4 models. What I wasn't able to tell was if the i4's will all be FE for next year, or if they're going to produce and sell both i4 FE's and base models. That's probably going to depend on how their production capacity is ramping up.

5k-6k total V6 manual Emiras in North America which includes Canada, sounds about right. Assuming 80% of those are in the U.S., that's 4k to about 5k cars. With tens of millions of cars on the roads in the U.S., 4k-5k spread out over 50 states isn't many cars at all. If you're in an Emira, especially a V6 with a manual, you're going to be in an exclusive, exotic-looking sports car.

 

[Eagle7]

It is tho in regards to residuals

Depends on how many survive, how many are available and what the demand is.

 

[Lotustoronto]

700 V6 FE for North America, about 500 of those for the U.S. with the rest going to Canada.

Matt said at the Emira debut in 2021 that they would only be able to use the V6 for 5 years, which puts it to 2026. Model year 2026 is produced beginning in calendar year 2025; 2 years from the start of U.S. production in January 2023.

From what we've been told, the 'first' year production run which is all V6 FE's only, will end in March of 2023 as the last of the V6 FE's are built for North America. All of those are model year 2024 cars. The 'second' year production begins immediately after that, and it includes base V6 and i4 models. Those will also be model year 2024 cars. As I understood it, the allocations for the U.S. for the second production year would be increased to 1,900 and that includes V6 base models as well as i4 models. What I wasn't able to tell was if the i4's will all be FE for next year, or if they're going to produce and sell both i4 FE's and base models. That's probably going to depend on how their production capacity is ramping up.

5k-6k total V6 manual Emiras in North America which includes Canada, sounds about right. Assuming 80% of those are in the U.S., that's 4k to about 5k cars. With tens of millions of cars on the roads in the U.S., 4k-5k spread out over 50 states isn't many cars at all. If you're in an Emira, especially a V6 with a manual, you're going to be in an exclusive, exotic-looking sports car.

From Gator's info, I read it to understand 1,900 total cars for 2023 (build year). Including V6 F/E. If it is 2,600 total for N/A that is much better than I thought. But I am afraid that would account for probably 50% of their 2023 production run at Hethel. I can't see that happening. But I hope they do. Either way it will be a rare car on the roads. I am looking forward to the test drive.

 

[4380r]

If you're in an Emira, especially a V6 with a manual, you're going to be in an exclusive, exotic-looking sports car.

As has been the case for virtually every Lotus preceding it.

 

[Tommyboy1986]

Depends on how many survive, how many are available and what the demand is.

By the time I’m done doing a million miles a year in mine it will be worth about £30
But the fun out weighs the cost! People should forget residuals and focus on the fun in such a lovely looking car Life is to short .

 

[lion shf]

I remain untempted by THIS manual (and pedal placement etc)

 

[mjw930]

700 V6 FE’s for NA, I believe 620 are US. Canada and Mexico share the remaining 80.

 

[ksegg]

Just adding context, Porsche sold 28,242 718 Caymans in the US alone between 2016 and 2022 (not counting 2022).

That's...........a LOT. Surprised the made so many.

I think my 2020 M2 Competition 6MT is more rare than a Cayman/Cayman S. And the M2 CS is more rare than a Cayman GT4.

 

[Tommyboy1986]

I remain untempted by THIS manual (and pedal placement etc)

Agreed No interest at all

 

[Kentviking]

By the time I’m done doing a million miles a year in mine it will be worth about £30
But the fun out weighs the cost! People should forget residuals and focus on the fun in such a lovely looking car Life is to short .

I completely see your point, and certainly doing "millions" of miles massively brings down the cost/fun ratio. I might suggest though that understanding the cost of depreciation, as much as understanding the true costs of finance, are two of the most common factors car buyers who lack a basic understanding of finance seem to forget...and including these in your man maths means that ultimately you will be able to buy better cars for less cost per (s)mile. Life is indeed too short, and I aim to try to completely maximise my utility in it.

 

[Tommyboy1986]

I completely see your point, and certainly doing "millions" of miles massively brings down the cost/fun ratio. I might suggest though that understanding the cost of depreciation, as much as understanding the true costs of finance, are two of the most common factors car buyers who lack a basic understanding of finance seem to forget...and including these in your man maths means that ultimately you will be able to buy better cars for less cost per (s)mile. Life is indeed too short, and I aim to try to completely maximise my utility in it.

I agree , the 48 month balloon futire value is £46k
There also is a two year waiting list so we should all be able to enjoy the next 18 months with out losing to much money on the car .
I will finance mine with a deposit of £20k and I’m pretty confident in 2 years the car will still be worth over £70k so my money I put in is still safe .
I don’t for a min think this will help me progress onto bigger cars in the future but it is a fun safe car that shouldn’t lose to much money for a while so it’s a win win

 

[simonb]

Whilst I appreciate the confirmation bias and man maths in it, I dont see that the v6 manual is guaranteed god like status. The very low mileage late Evoras seem a better deal for buyer than seller.

A short plateau of non depreciation is all that is needed to be able to get rid of a car "bought blind" if it does not meet expectations

I would expect depreciation to start in year 2, but am also hoping the i4 will live up to expectations

 

[Tommyboy1986]

Whilst I appreciate the confirmation bias and man maths in it, I dont see that the v6 manual is guaranteed god like status. The very low mileage late Evoras seem a better deal for buyer than seller.

A short plateau of non depreciation is all that is needed to be able to get rid of a car "bought blind" if it does not meet expectations

I would expect depreciation to start in year 2, but am also hoping the i4 will live up to expectations

Agreed … there will be a lot of first edition manuals out there and readily available .. I’m new to the lotus world but if you search for auto evora I see the premium they hold and how strong there residual is and also the limited amount of them . Very pleased I specked the auto even if it has got a rubbish auto box !
Can’t wait to get it now !