I disagree with the handwriting on the wall. By my last count, more than 45 countries and 17 U.S. states still have restrictions or outright bans on the sale of new gasoline vehicles by 2035. EV growth has slowed, but still outpaces gasoline cars. This varies heavily by market.
The moment we're experiencing is less about aversion to EVs and more about aversion to risk. With interest rates high and inflation still reverberating through the wallets of many families, the risk to spend tens of thousands of dollars on new technology is less tenable, especially when that technology still comes at a premium vs. gasoline counterparts. The product isn't that good, either. It seems to be Tesla, Porsche, and Hyundai Group leading the way and everyone else still marketing mediocre 1st generation product. There are other exceptions, but the casual buyer doesn't know the difference. The casual buyers look at product from car companies they know and trust like Toyota, Honda and Mazda, and they're not impressed.
Casual buyers are increasingly the focus. In many markets including the U.S., we are transitioning out of early adopters and into an early majority buyer. That's a very different persona who is less informed and less savvy with technology and change. Automakers have really dropped the ball in clearly communicating EV capabilities, (and in the US there are a whole host of problems at the dealer level) and buyers quickly get overwhelmed and resort to what's familiar.
Geely saw an opportunity to get a jump on the big players in the electrification space, and they were correct in that assessment. The Geely product is very strong relative to competitors, putting them in that tier along with Tesla / Porsche / Hyundai which is a stronger position than if they were to go toe-to-toe with Porsche on ICE powertrains.
The biggest problem with Geely aiming Lotus at the middle of the market, is that's where Polestar lives. Lotus is meant to be the halo property. The product seems good enough. It seems someone is dropping the ball on the rest of the owner experience. I visited my local Lotus service center (shared with Aston Martin) last weekend and the place looked more like derelict Mattress Warehouse than a luxury experience. That just won't do when Porsche has a glistening palace down the block.
Yes they do have restrictions, which is precisely the problem. Nobody asked the customer. They decided what the customer can or can't have, proudly announced it like it was a done deal, essentially forced manufacturers to dance to their music, then expected the customers would just 'do as they're told'. Now they're in shock as they're finally getting the message from the customers. They're not buying. The dealers themselves have been sending letters to the government agencies begging to delay the mandates. Their lots are full of EV's that just aren't selling. Manufacturers are scaling back on production because they're not selling. They have fields of cars just sitting there that they can't ship to dealers, because the dealer's lots are already full of EV's that aren't selling.
It's not just a new technology issue. There's real costs and downsides which those who bought are now finding out. They are NOT environmentally friendly. Getting the minerals and resources to make these cars is anything but environmentally friendly, and those resources are finite, not to mention the political issues. China owns and controls over 70% of the rare earth mineral mines needed to make batteries, and they make the majority of the batteries for all these EV's. EV's are significantly heavier than traditional gas vehicles, and it's taking a toll on the roadways. This is going to add more costs to repair and reinforce them, which means taxes to pay for it. The increased weight is harder on tires, and they're scrubbing off particulate into the air at a higher rate than lighter vehicles do, not to mention the cost of replacing those expensive tires. Insurance companies are now raising their rates because even if you don't own an EV, if you hit one the costs of repair are astronomically higher than a gas vehicle. We just got a 17% increase in our vehicle insurance rates because of this very issue.
EV's have range and charging issues in cold climates. The infrastructure isn't ready for an all electric world, and there doesn't seem to be any viable plans in place to increase electricity generation. Wind and solar are woefully inadequate, and the maintenance on those systems isn't cheap at all. Wind and solar increase temperature and environmental impacts in the surrounding areas where they've been built. Coal is easy to do and cheap, but it's the boogie man. Can't use that! The most practical and feasible method right now is nuclear power, but the environmentalists don't want that either, so now what? What's their plan?
I predict the 'mandates' are going to get pushed back at least 10 years, while committees haggle and discuss how to upgrade the infrastructure. We're just simply not ready for a full court press to convert everything everywhere over to electric right now, and it's going to take years before we're even close.
Yeah, Geely's position is so strong they sold 40 electric vehicles in a month? That's
JUST a bit short of the 150,000 a year they were expecting. All the great plans of those at the top keep failing to take into account the customer. It doesn't matter what they think is a great idea if the customer decides not to buy it. What Geely EV sold in one month, Lotus Hethel is producing and selling every 2 days. There's a BIG message and clue there. Showing me a great vehicle that I might be interested in, but there's nowhere within hundreds of miles for me to look at one is not a winning strategy. Every dealer within 20 minutes of my house has EV's for me to look at, except Lotus who's hundreds of miles away.
What Geely should have done and still needs to do is build out the customer interface infrastructure while building a new vehicle portfolio, and time it so the infrastructure opens a month before the vehicles start to be rolled out. BE READY, which they clearly weren't and still aren't even after several years now. Just being EV doesn't automatically guarantee success, despite government orders and dictates.