U.S. Update: Allocation & Order Date

[TomE]

I don't think most if anybody had any idea the demand would be what it's turned out to be; I know I didn't. I saw the Goodwood coverage on July 11, and after watching the videos, picked up the phone and called Park Place in Bellevue, Washington. I was genuinely surprised to find out there were already 45 deposits. I placed my deposit at #46. The dealer told me they are the 2nd biggest Lotus dealership in the country, and they usually get 70 cars a year, so he was confident I'd get a car, but also commented on the volume of interest they were getting.

Almost 7 months later, it turns out they're only getting 45 cars. Dealers that normally get 1 or 2 were getting 5 or 6 now because they too had a backlog, which doesn't sound like much, but spread out over 40 dealers that siphoned off enough cars to seriously short the normally high volume dealers. That's not a dealer issue, that's a production volume issue.

The single biggest issue at play here, is the fact that Lotus has received far more deposits than they ever dreamed they would, and weren't ready to handle it. I have no doubt they'd love to be able to crank out 10,000 cars right now, but they aren't there yet. They're going to be able to do that, and are making progress, but they're not there yet. This first production run isn't enough to meet the demand, and that's just the way it is. They had already planned for a "launch spec" as Russell called it, but that was before they knew what the reaction was going to be. It's what we know as the First Edition. They thought they were going to need it as an incentive to encourage people to be interested in the car. Turns out they didn't need it at all, but they didn't know that at the time.

They need more production, and they need more dealers, and they know it. If they can go from a studio model and a running proof-of-concept car, to sellable production in only 7 months, that's a pretty good indication of how capable they are. The next 7 months should make a significant difference overall. That may not sound great for right now, but look at how fast the last 7 months seems to have gone by. Before we know it, we'll be reading press reviews, and watching videos from the excited owners receiving their cars in the U.K., and we'll be configuring from base models with more color options. Depending on what you want for options, it may be equal to or less than an FE, so you may be able to get exactly what you wanted for less than an FE. New options may become available that FE buyers didn't get, like the TDC stripe on the steering wheel, colored stitching in the interior, different seat belt colors, etc. The only downside is having to wait longer to get your car than if you were in the FE group that are getting theirs this year. We just have to be patient.

If Lotus got this kind of response from enthusiasts who follow things like the Goodwood Festival, imagine what's going to happen when the general public sees these, and finds out what the price of the i4 is. If you weren't in the deposit group that's getting an FE, and you still want a car, either keep your FE deposit in for a base car, or get your deposit in now, because once the reviews hit the streets it's going to be a stampede.

Great points well put.

I do wonder how some people expected Lotus to forecast demand at this unprecedented level without revealing a car but still size production accordingly - capacity takes time to create. Then when they revealed the car and demand was enormous, people are frustrated that Lotus didn't plan for that. They did plan - the ability to add 2nd and 3rd shifts, but they take time to hire (and for suppliers to ramp up too). Lotus were really worried about possible impact on quality of scaling up too quickly. Failing to deliver the required and expected quality was a huge concern.

So shift 2 will cut in at some point in the next 6-10 months, but even with that the queue is already out to mid 2023. If it takes off after press reviews that line will quickly go into 2024 and they'll have to get shift 3 in place.

Lotus used to sell about 2,000 cars a year to a few enthusiasts in selected countries. To jump to 15,000 cars a year to a global sportscar audience in the space of 2 years I think will be an astonishing achievement. The sportscar segment the Emira is pitched in is only 100,000-150,000 cars sold per year globally for all brands.

 

[CHEESE]

My dealer confirmed that I have a First Edition spot. I pre-ordered in early August, so I guess I lucked out. I don't really want to get into which dealer it is, but I haven't seen anyone here mention it yet. I also don't know what their allocation is or how many deposits they have. They had 6 new Evora GTs on the lot that day, so I wouldn't consider them a "small" dealer.

I don't believe the FE was a known thing back when I pre-ordered, so I just placed a deposit for the V6/manual. The salesperson was dead-on with a ballpark guestimate of "in the $90K's" for the V6, so I'm happy with FE the pricing.

 

[darkling]

Which dealership in California?

boardwalk

 

[p.rob]

Great points well put.

I do wonder how some people expected Lotus to forecast demand at this unprecedented level without revealing a car but still size production accordingly - capacity takes time to create. Then when they revealed the car and demand was enormous, people are frustrated that Lotus didn't plan for that. They did plan - the ability to add 2nd and 3rd shifts, but they take time to hire (and for suppliers to ramp up too). Lotus were really worried about possible impact on quality of scaling up too quickly. Failing to deliver the required and expected quality was a huge concern.

So shift 2 will cut in at some point in the next 6-10 months, but even with that the queue is already out to mid 2023. If it takes off after press reviews that line will quickly go into 2024 and they'll have to get shift 3 in place.

Lotus used to sell about 2,000 cars a year to a few enthusiasts in selected countries. To jump to 15,000 cars a year to a global sportscar audience in the space of 2 years I think will be an astonishing achievement. The sportscar segment the Emira is pitched in is only 100,000-150,000 cars sold per year globally for all brands.

I think they would have had a much bigger impact if quality wasn't good than if they don't pump out enough units of great quality... That is a very good point

 

[Balboa]

I think they would have had a much bigger impact if quality wasn't good than if they don't pump out enough units of great quality... That is a very good point

So frustrated. Placed my deposit in October. My dealer is now saying they will price ADM based on market conditions. Granted I'm in California so I can always walk and get my deposit but then my option is back of the line with someone who will honor MSRP. Is anyone else in US getting jerked around on ADM from a dealer?

 

[Porter]

I thought it was just base pricing back then, but I don't remember. I seem to remember fe pricing in sept for uk and later for usa... and remember a whole lot of posts about how crazy expensive it was vs the announced 60k pound base price... I guess I just don't get it really, they will announce pricing and people can decide if they value it that highly or not. Lotus has motivation to price competitively as they want sales and want to be in business, but prices on everything have risen so I'm not sure they should/could be expected to hold pricing thru multiple years. I don't think any manufacturer would do that, it's a recipe for going out of business. guess we will see soon enough!

There were a lot of posts about US pricing at the time, because people (myself included) wanted the car to have a chance to be a price-competitive success against the Porsche 718. The announced pricing was just slightly higher than what was being hoped for, but well within the range of what people felt was reasonable compared to the UK pricing structure. They kept the FE price tight enough to ensure it would fall under $100k all-in (car, tax, tag, title, etc) for most customers across the country, which is a very good thing because there's a really significant emotional barrier for US customers when the six-figure line is crossed. $94k or even $97k can be rationalized in a way that $102k simply can't for a huge number of buyers.

 

[Porter]

I'm also not familiar with this. Are you just describing how things have been or should be? Tesla doesn't follow the model you described. Also, MSRP is "suggested." Prior to the pandemic, how many of us walked into the dealer expecting to pay MSRP? Nowadays we all hope for MSRP


We don't even know the pricing for Base Edition yet and to be fair nobody knew the pricing of the First Edition when we placed the deposit. There's nothing to say. If you're getting the V6 FE your price starts at $94k. The base I4 (whenever that is) will start at $75k. Anything outside of that has not been announced.

I hope for Lotus' sake and that of existing depositors, dealers don't gouge customers. Especially those who've been on the list. Anything beyond that is decided by the market, unfortunately.


What didn't help Alfa was reliability! All the electrical glitches with preproduction media cars and then owner complaints about the same. I remember all full well because my friend wanted to buy a Quadrifoglio at the time and was too concerned about short-term reliability, let alone long-term.

Model Year is a whole thing, one that's unique to the US market. It governs the regulatory regime under which a given car is homologated for public sale, and has a ton of implications well beyond any marketing or product sale distinctions about year that we normally think about as buyers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_year

In the US, automobile product MSRP is typically frozen by the manufacturer for a given model/trim for a full model-year period, for a bunch of reasons that are not about the price itself. There are extensive regulatory filings that need to be made with the various trade, safety, and environmental agencies for each homologated Model Year of an auto product, and some of the trade-related regulations change in their requirements based on the specific listed MSRP of the vehicle. So it's not that auto companies are prevented from changing the MSRP in a given model year, but it's a huge pain in the ass and requires a bunch of amended filings with different agencies in order to do so, so in practice it almost never happens.


On the Alfa front... let's be fair to them. Most of the issues were sorted out with software fixes, so they weren't actual mechanical reliability problems at all. It's not like they were shredding their transmissions or having brake failures or blowing up engines. They mostly had problems that were perceived as "electrical" but were actually software. And Alfa did fix them. But the damage to the brand was done by the time they got it solved, mostly through owner communities bitching about the owner experience and those complaints being picked up by the automotive media. It wasn't that the owners disliked the car. Even most of the people complaining actually loved the product, but in particular the run-around they got from the dealer network about the repairs (and the deafening silence from Alfa, from the perspective of those owners) turned a lot of other potential buyers away from the brand entirely. If Alfa had done a better job on comms and outreach to the affected people directly rather than relying on the US dealer network to handle it ad-hoc, they probably would have had a much better outcome on all fronts.

 

[Eagle7]

Model Year is a whole thing, one that's unique to the US market. It governs the regulatory regime under which a given car is homologated for public sale, and has a ton of implications well beyond any marketing or product sale distinctions about year that we normally think about as buyers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_year

In the US, automobile product MSRP is typically frozen by the manufacturer for a given model/trim for a full model-year period, for a bunch of reasons that are not about the price itself. There are extensive regulatory filings that need to be made with the various trade, safety, and environmental agencies for each homologated Model Year of an auto product, and some of the trade-related regulations change in their requirements based on the specific listed MSRP of the vehicle. So it's not that auto companies are prevented from changing the MSRP in a given model year, but it's a huge pain in the ass and requires a bunch of amended filings with different agencies in order to do so, so in practice it almost never happens.


On the Alfa front... let's be fair to them. Most of the issues were sorted out with software fixes, so they weren't actual mechanical reliability problems at all. It's not like they were shredding their transmissions or having brake failures or blowing up engines. They mostly had problems that were perceived as "electrical" but were actually software. And Alfa did fix them. But the damage to the brand was done by the time they got it solved, mostly through owner communities bitching about the owner experience and those complaints being picked up by the automotive media. It wasn't that the owners disliked the car. Even most of the people complaining actually loved the product, but in particular the run-around they got from the dealer network about the repairs (and the deafening silence from Alfa, from the perspective of those owners) turned a lot of other potential buyers away from the brand entirely. If Alfa had done a better job on comms and outreach to the affected people directly rather than relying on the US dealer network to handle it ad-hoc, they probably would have had a much better outcome on all fronts.

Many of the issues with the Alfa was the Quadrifoglio; that's the car that the magazine reviewers had their early issues with. The regular Giulias were much better in that regard. I bought my Giulia Ti Lusso in September of 2017 as my daily driver, and it's been a gem of a car; no issues. No squeaks or rattles. I've taken it on multiple long trips, driven it through snow and ice in the winter. I'm keeping it, it's that good. The problem with the brand has been the inability of management to either know what to do with it, or didn't have the authority to spend the money to do something with it. So one of the best Italian sports sedans ever, just languished until now it's almost irrelevant in the marketplace. I remember something Steve Jobs said in an interview back in the 80's when talking about growing Apple into a major corporation. He said he hired a bunch of corporate manager types to bring the company to that level. After a pause, he said: "It didn't work out. Most of them were bozos. They knew how to manage, but they didn't know how to do anything." I've never forgotten that, as that statement perfectly describes a lot of upper management types. It certainly described the management at FCA that threw away the opportunity of the Alfa Romeo Giulia.

We have a very different situation at Lotus. Matt and the management team have come up through the ranks of the company, working in the factory, so they know what goes on and why. To me, they even have somewhat of a Star Trek vibe going, with Matt being Captain Kirk, Gavan being engineer Scott, and Russell being Mr. Spock lol. I'm seriously impressed with what they've been able to accomplish in just the last 7 months. With these guys at the helm, I think the future of Lotus looks very bright.

 

[DF_Toronto]

The situation seems pretty clear so far. Lotus are not building enough cars to cover the existing V6 FE deposits, particularly in the US. They've said that after they ship 700 cars, that's the end of the road for the First Edition, and as of today they have no other announced model with details or pricing or anything. Everybody else after that 700 is going to get some other kind of future Emira, in a package that's different from what they deposited against and possibly with different pricing.

Our friends in the UK who have posted in response to these issues don't seem to be familiar with the US-specific "offer price" legalities tied to model year designations. In the US each model year is legally a unique product from top to bottom, and there's a big regulatory wall between model years. The change of model year is when companies can legally change the MSRP of a product, and based on the currently communicated US-bound production timing there might not ever be a MY23 base model Emira (V6 or I4) sold in the US at all, it could become a MY24 model which would legally require a new published MSRP.

So everything after the first 700 FE sales blows the pricing expectations apart for US buyers, and it's an unknown potential quagmire of perverse incentives and dealership games. That's the reason for the irritation. Lotus could easily soothe those worries by stating openly whether existing pricing is going to be honored for those with existing deposits, but they've chosen radio silence instead. I don't get it.

Hell, I'm probably still getting an FE because I was early, but I'm irritated on principle because there should be open transparency about these issues when a small manufacturer is trying to grow a meaningful community of owners who act as brand ambassadors everywhere they go. Lotus doesn't have a big enough dealer network in the US to have any real visibility through that network to the public, so the owner community represents the brand instead. What all these new owners feel about how they're treated is genuinely important for the future of the company and could make or break them.

Look at what word-of-mouth narratives about quality did to Alfa during what should have been a triumphant return to the US for that brand. If that kind of thing takes off about the Lotus buying experience, it will torpedo a lot of the goodwill that they desperately need in order to credibly market the Type 132 and other future products here. They're starting from way behind with the US general public, so they need to make the early adopter enthusiasts into walking evangelists if they want to convert a hundred thousand Joe Normals to becoming buyers.

This is 100% one of the best posts, bang on sir.

 

[~el~jefe~]

So frustrated. Placed my deposit in October. My dealer is now saying they will price ADM based on market conditions. Granted I'm in California so I can always walk and get my deposit but then my option is back of the line with someone who will honor MSRP. Is anyone else in US getting jerked around on ADM from a dealer?

only california does that shit.

 

[TomE]

To me, they even have somewhat of a Star Trek vibe going, with Matt being Captain Kirk, Gavan being engineer Scott, and Russell being Mr. Spock lol.

Genuinely laughed out loud at this. I'd never thought about it but now you've mentioned it I won't be able to talk to them again without this being in my mind! My first thought was the Smoking Tire podcast with the three of them.

 

[jmn444]

only california does that shit.

def not unique to cali...

 

[Eagle7]

Genuinely laughed out loud at this. I'd never thought about it but now you've mentioned it I won't be able to talk to them again without this being in my mind! My first thought was the Smoking Tire podcast with the three of them.

Hehehe yeah, that's when the thought hit me. The way they looked and the interaction reminded me of the famous trio. "To boldly go, where Lotus has never been before".

 

[TomE]

Sadly my photoshop skills aren't up to altering an image from the podcast to a Star Trek theme but maybe you can? I'll gladly get framed copies to them as a gift from the forum

 

[Psb1816]

Harrys garage video was posted Oct 31/2021. Even if he did the video 2 mths prior that puts him placing his order 8/31. Do we really think he’s gonna be told “unfortunately you are not getting a FE. But we are excited to put you in line for a base model that we don’t know the price of or the options costs.” ? I’m sure this will not be the case.

 

[Porter]

Genuinely laughed out loud at this. I'd never thought about it but now you've mentioned it I won't be able to talk to them again without this being in my mind! My first thought was the Smoking Tire podcast with the three of them.

Hahaha totally agree. If someone even just photoshopped their heads onto an appropriate promo image from Star Trek it would be amazing. All three characters wore different colored uniforms if I remember right.

 

[Porter]

Harrys garage video was posted Oct 31/2021. Even if he did the video 2 mths prior that puts him placing his order 8/31. Do we really think he’s gonna be told “unfortunately you are not getting a FE. But we are excited to put you in line for a base model that we don’t know the price of or the options costs.” ? I’m sure this will not be the case.

He put his deposit in at (or before) Goodwood if I remember correctly.

 

[EspritGuy]

Many of the issues with the Alfa was the Quadrifoglio; that's the car that the magazine reviewers had their early issues with. The regular Giulias were much better in that regard. I bought my Giulia Ti Lusso in September of 2017 as my daily driver, and it's been a gem of a car; no issues. No squeaks or rattles. I've taken it on multiple long trips, driven it through snow and ice in the winter. I'm keeping it, it's that good. The problem with the brand has been the inability of management to either know what to do with it, or didn't have the authority to spend the money to do something with it. So one of the best Italian sports sedans ever, just languished until now it's almost irrelevant in the marketplace. I remember something Steve Jobs said in an interview back in the 80's when talking about growing Apple into a major corporation. He said he hired a bunch of corporate manager types to bring the company to that level. After a pause, he said: "It didn't work out. Most of them were bozos. They knew how to manage, but they didn't know how to do anything." I've never forgotten that, as that statement perfectly describes a lot of upper management types. It certainly described the management at FCA that threw away the opportunity of the Alfa Romeo Giulia.

We have a very different situation at Lotus. Matt and the management team have come up through the ranks of the company, working in the factory, so they know what goes on and why. To me, they even have somewhat of a Star Trek vibe going, with Matt being Captain Kirk, Gavan being engineer Scott, and Russell being Mr. Spock lol. I'm seriously impressed with what they've been able to accomplish in just the last 7 months. With these guys at the helm, I think the future of Lotus looks very bright.

Make it so!

 

[DF_Toronto]

Sadly my photoshop skills aren't up to altering an image from the podcast to a Star Trek theme but maybe you can? I'll gladly get framed copies to them as a gift from the forum

That would be awesome!

I know you’ve been hearing this a lot and are an amazing shepherd of information to them. I really hope that when they understand comms have been an issue that they understand one crucial thing. I’ve spent my career at a huge enterprise and there is a cardinal rule that is if you tell your client to expect something, you better deliver on it. So if you aren’t 100% committed to making something happen, then don’t say anything.

Lotus has always been my favourite car brand, but as someone who lives in the heart of downtown in a condominium who commutes less than 8K KM per year (mostly to the golf club) in snowy Canada it’s been impractical to own 2 cars for my usage where it costs 100K to buy an additional parking space (a Lotus is a summer toy). I saw the Emira on YouTube on July 8th and immediately said screw it! Assuming the pre-order / registration of interest was like most things and similar to some buddies who bought the Vette I went to the Lotus website where they said give us your info and we’ll contact you or along those lines. So I just assumed there were no deposits being taken yet and there would be more info to come for those who signed up, having never even seen or knowing there was a local dealership (the local one here is called Gentry and they sell a number of brands), so had no idea. Anyway, I get a call about a week or a little more from Gentry who I guess got my info from Lotus and they’d been taking orders all along so I immediately went right in and gave my deposit. I’m around #30 and for some reason at the time I had done simple math based on 500 for NA I thought I got somewhere and figured I’d probably be right around the cutoff but would just miss it and be part of 2023 deliverIes. However the dealer at the time volunteered to me an estimate of a fully specked car that turned out to be bang on.

I’ll preface by saying that I have no past experience with the dealership and have absolutely zero reason then or at this time to distrust them and anything I’ve heard has been positive. That being said and happening to know some major players in the car industry I know a few things about dealerships hooking up their repeat customers (and why not), I decided to call Lotus USA. I got right through to a super nice guy, he was very chatty and we talked for about 45 minutes. My main question was if there’s a way to know that I’m really the number I am on the list and essentially that the dealership (not mine specifically) ins’t holding half the slots ahead of me for “VIPs”. He kinda laughed about it and suggested yeah that probably happens but nothing you can do about it. Anyway, he also volunteered info about financing (I assumed small company, pay cash or get your own lending if you need it), would basically be equivalent to any Volvo. Then he volunteered that they’re also finalizing what the FE will be but it will include all the options available and have the badge, and anyone will be able to get it and those will be the first cars. If you want a lower spec those will come out next at a lower price. Even though I’d been kicking myself for thinking deposits weren’t being taken yet on July 8th, and this news meant I could get an FE after all I told him they should make the thing limited so it’s more special. As an A-type individual and loving the Seneca Blue (which I also thought might be “limited”) I immediately called the dealer who confirmed this and told him I know exactly what I want and I’ll e-mail it to you. Basically saying you know what I want in advance FYI - V6 manual full spec FE in the exact show car trim, you’ll only need to contact me about other little features when able to put my order in.

I apologize this has been very long winded. The point is, I’ve spent the last 7 months expecting to get an FE for ____price which Lotus themselves e-mailed me with my reference number. I’ve acquired a 2nd parking space and also put down a deposit towards EV charge installation my condo is doing in the next year, and I’ve registered myself for the 132 which will replace my AMG E Cabrio when it comes out. I want to be a Lotus fan boy and love my Lotuses. I think Lotus should have made a limited number of FE (that had something unique to them aside from the badge) from the beginning. HOWEVER, if the Star Trek boys sat around in a room recently and said you know what, that was a mistake we should have made that decision 7 months ago so we’re going to change our minds now. OR, they have huge demand and costs have gone up (likely) so we’re going to cut off this car we told folks about and price it higher to get that spec (who’ve put a deposit down). That’s on THEM, months ago they should have stopped promising anyone giving deposits from that point that they can get an FE or told them that it’s TBD.

As far as I’m concerned they have to honour what they’ve been telling anyone who’s given a deposit (and they have been even if it wasn’t in writing). Do they literally have to? No. And nothing is guaranteed, Lotus could go bankrupt and I could get no car and no deposit. At that point their reputation no longer matters. What matters is that they’re scaling up big time and most Emira drivers will likely have more than 1 car, and are likely Lotus EV buyers like myself as long as they have a positive experience. Another customer in the US posted yesterday that they were an August depositor and just paid the 2nd deposit and ordered their FE spec. One could complain and argue those of us who put in our deposits earlier should get our car first, but that personally doesn’t bother me at all. If I never got an FE in the first place I’d just kick myself for not being earlier. But what’s completely unacceptable is being told and believing that for 7 months without anything to refute it, then they decide to go back on their word. AND having some customers getting a supposed FE discount on full spec who paid later (in the same region). Simply disgusting and I won’t be a Lotus customer if that’s the case. Also I’m sure lots don’t really care about the FE badge but it’s really cool for me as the last ICE car and a weekend toy I had planned keep and cherish my Emira until I’m too old and frail to change a gear, and then I’d just stick it in a garage and look at it .

I really hope they’re looking at the long term business plans and the implications of not doing right by those they’ve entered into a contract with as long term advocates for the brand. Beyond the FE stuff, I’ve wondered for example how there are folks giving deposits today who think they’re getting an Emira in 2023. I may be far off but aren’t they looking at 2024 and potentially 2025 at this point? Why are they still taking deposits and being silent about that, it’s almost as if they think if they ignore a problem it will simply go away. I think they’re wearing too many hats and this is overwhelming for them, they may need to pump the brakes a little bit to make sure they get it right because they only have one chance to do that. To quote Shigeru Miyamoto “A delayed game is eventually good, but a rushed game is forever bad”. Please take your time and do right by your customer base. My 2 cents.

 

[jmn444]

well that was a book haha...

so I got lost in some of that, but you thought there was 500 coming, they raised it to 700 which made your odds better, and because you assumed you were getting an FE but didn't make the cut you are now upset with them?

I feel like they've been mostly on point with everything they've disclosed. I feel like a lot of folks don't understand allocations for vehicle builds and didn't understand they were just getting in line to get an allocation at some point.